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Technology Stocks : How high will Microsoft fly? -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Mehrdad Arya who wrote (42776)	4/21/2000 9:23:00 AM
From: techtonicbull	Respond to of 74651

Mehrdad: I did not say MSFT was not a great company. I believe it is, however, they are facing tremendous challenges that they must address. Their cash hoard will not help them fully if they get sued based on the Judges conclusions of law. Their basic model is under attack. They had a monopoly, and still do, in OS's on the desk top. However, they have kept their products generally proprietary (like SUNW has done with Solaris) for the desk top. The end user, has more to choose from in the future in LINUX, APPPLE OS, and internet devices(which use a browser, not a separate OS). They have not created a wireless strategy. So, in conclusion, they are seeing a diminution in revenue. How will they respond. Probably they will make adjustments and changes if they are smart. They have done so in the past. Long term I don't see a problem, it is near term that I see a problem IMHO.

To: Mehrdad Arya who wrote (42776)	4/21/2000 11:34:00 AM
From: Insitu	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 74651

Mehrdad, Don't you understand that MSFT cannot legally compete the way everyone else does. There are a different set of rules for companies with a monopoly. That is the law. As for the pool of talent, it remains to be seen what happens to that pool if they no longer have in-the-money options to keep them at MSFT.

To: Mehrdad Arya who wrote (42776)	4/21/2000 12:17:00 PM
From: Bearded One	Respond to of 74651

Mehrdad, I have been following the Microsoft case very closely. I spent years in Seattle, and have connections with Microsoft, with the DOJ, with the government, etc... Anyone who thinks that Microsoft is not going to get their ass whupped is smoking pot. These are the same people who first claimed that Microsoft would trounce the DOJ in court. The denial factor here is incredible. The appeals court is not going to do very much for Microsoft. The Republicans in Congress aren't going to do much for Microsoft. Microsoft screwed this up royally, is still screwing things up royally, and is going to pay heavily.

To: Mehrdad Arya who wrote (42776)	4/21/2000 1:12:00 PM
From: UnBelievable	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 74651

Even more clear is that Microsoft is a much better value than almost all of the HOT stocks, with little or no revenues or profits, unproven value propositions, technology that sounds good but has not really been produced, or are little more than professional service firms, but which are trading at 50 to 1,000 times Projected Revenues, and for whom PE means Possibly Eventually. It is interesting how many of the IPO's of the last year or two and being bought by people because they think the company may be the next Microsoft, but at a price that is orders of magnitude higher than anyone ever paid for the real Microsoft. I agree that the way in which Microsoft is thought of by investors is evolving. But I do not think this is happening in a vacuum. I expect that many investor's understanding or investments, risk, and return is also going to change. Even with the problems and challenges they now face, Microsoft is very strong company. They have a proven track record of being able to deliver an ongoing stream of products that provide value, and do so in way that enables them to establish barriers to entry of competitors (BTW -this is good, and while their competitors may complain about it - not the legal issue in the anti-trust case). Perhaps more importantly they have a very large group of very talented people, as well as the infrastructure and financial resources to leverage that talent. It is very easy to look back and see when a stock should have been sold. It is much harder to accept things as they are now, and make a decision based on that rather than how they were. What I expected Microsoft to be worth, what I could have sold it for three weeks ago, what I may wish it was worth, are all issues that are completely irrelevant to the decision I must make now. My personal feeling is that Microsoft is going to survive and grow and be profitable, even if a little less than has been the case in the past. I don't know if what I will be able to sell it for next week is really more or less than what I will be able to sell it for next month. I am much more concerned with a very careful review of those investments I have in the other, newer, smaller, speculative stocks where the opportunity may exist to sell them for more next week, even though it may be at a loss, before they are further ravaged by a much more hostile economic and investment environment. In my mind Microsoft shows what happens when I buy or continue to hold a stock because of hopes, refusal to take losses and move on, or for other emotional reasons. It is probably too late to apply this lesson to Microsoft?s stock. But while everyone is focused on Microsoft I'm going to be taking a hard look at the benefits of holding a number of other stocks which are much riskier than Microsoft, and which I still have the opportunity to sell at a much greater price, for their value, than I will be able to get for Microsoft next week, or for those stocks next month. In a storm I would rather cross the ocean in an Aircraft Carrier in need of a few changes than on the blueprints for a racing yacht. These are only my opinions and not investment advice.