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Strategies & Market Trends : MDA - Market Direction Analysis -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Crimson Ghost who wrote (47613)	4/21/2000 2:35:00 PM
From: Bill Larsen	Read Replies (4) \| Respond to of 99985

George, I'm wondering how much fear a downturn in the market is going to create. A lot of people (myself included) have been reading investment advice from places like the Motley Fool who argue that if your time horizon is long enough you shouldn't hit the eject button in a correction. Anyone have any ideas how much money is in the markets from investors who are not living on margin? When I look around at my family and friends, they all seem to think, "humm, this downturn sucks sh*t, but I can pay my bills and I am not buying stocks with my credit cards, so I don't NEED to sell, so I'll wait this out..." These are not people daytrading or speculating on specific issues and they don't have any ideas about the short term direction of the market, they are just putting away money into their 401k's and mutual funds, and aren't really watching the markets. These are people who are going to need some serious reversal in their day to day fortunes before they feel compelled to liquidate equity assets cheap. Are these people going to get their heads handed to them? just musing. Bill

To: Crimson Ghost who wrote (47613)	4/21/2000 3:02:00 PM
From: Sunny Jim	Respond to of 99985

George I noticed a long time ago (back in 1996) that when the market was bullish and inclined to go up that it would often open down first thing in the morning and then end up for the day. I got a real kick out of day trading MU when it was doing that. Then things changed and the market seemed to open up in the morning and then end down for the day. I don't know if it's the market makers, the investor psychology, or the basic surge and pullbacks that causes this, but it is helpful to honor it. We are in a bearish acting market right now so the propensity is for it to open up and then move lower for the day, just as you have observed. When you see this, one needs to keep in mind that "the trend is your friend" (). Marty Zweig

To: Crimson Ghost who wrote (47613)	4/21/2000 3:19:00 PM
From: Jacob Snyder	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 99985

There's a new sheriff in town. His name is Mr. Earnings. First name Price-to. He's taking Names, and marking them down. Just pulled over MSFT, going to issue a big citation, payable Monday morning. He says, "Mr. Softie, you and a lot of folks have been exceeding the speed limit. Look at your speedometer. It should be marked in PEG units. 1 is safe, 2 is the speed limit. We'll let you get by with using forward earnings, but don't push it, I mean only the 12-month forward kind. A lot of you have been taking out the factory equipment, and installing speedometers marked in price/sales, or momentum units. Your daddy told you that wasn't safe, and it's time you listened. Speeds have been creeping up since 1974, but it's really got out of hand since October 1998. Do it long enough, and one of these days we're going to be scraping you off the pavement, and sending you to Rehab for a few years. Me and my partners, Margin Of Safety and Reversion To The Mean, are going to be on the Street, in your face, enforcing the speed limits, from now on. How would you like it if we took away your license to print money, pay employees in options, and defer the costs? If you think you can ignore us any longer, we'll be making life difficult for you. Got it? "