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Technology Stocks : Amazon.com, Inc. (AMZN) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Olu Emuleomo who wrote (101871)	4/21/2000 3:43:00 PM
From: Eric Wells	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 164684

Actually, the story is getting better, Olu - I must admit that I feel a tinge of bitterness that I lost a case of beer to you when AMZN briefly traded above it's previous all-time high in January of this year (what did it get up to - 113?). Let me know if you would interested in entering into the same wager again - and I'll give you a year for AMZN to trade above it's all-time high. -Eric

To: Olu Emuleomo who wrote (101871)	4/21/2000 6:20:00 PM
From: Glenn D. Rudolph	Respond to of 164684

Actually, the story is getting better, since etailers like etoys.com etc.. now see that etailing is NOT a piece of cake. I am not sure what you mean by better. I assume you mean it will be easier for Amazon with many of the pure plays running out of cash. That will leave the field open to AMZN, Wal-mart etc.. I am not going to say Wal-mart or any other specific business will dominate on-line commerce B2C. I will say and it appears to me to becomming more evident, that no pure play can turn a profit. It is my humble opinion Amazon must also open brick and mortar stores to eventually survive. This is an important issue due to the fact the barriers to entry to open hundreds of stores is high. It is only important at all if I am correct in this statement<G> but investors are now falling out of love with AMZN. The honeymoon is over. I believe they will now value AMZN using traditional metrics. Looking at the chart my 1 year target is 30, but 20 is quite possible; intra-year. Amazon can't possibly be valued using traditional metrics. There are no profits in their next two year forcasts by anyone of which I am aware. We would be back to some kind of a PE problem. I do not know if anyone here reads the weekly Robertson Stephens internet report any longer but this is from this week on Amazon: "AMAZON THE INCUBATOR While we continue to fully believe Amazon is building out a formidable eCommerce network, sometimes we have to scratch our heads at the leaps of faith required. This week, Amazon announced a $30-million investment in WineShopper.com, an online wine store currently serving only California. Given the capitalization of many eConsumer companies (while we like our wine), we can think of better uses for capital and investments that would be likely to provide higher near- and long-term returns. Don't get us wrong, Amazon's incubation model has merit, but in our view, as the leading eConsumer franchise name, the company should and can be highly selective in its investments. We would rather see Amazon rent out space on its site than make a cash investment in such early-stage businesses. Yet we are the first to admit that six months to a year ago, Amazon looked like a genius as eConsumer valuations were through the roof and we expected the company to realize huge returns on its investments. However, after watching valuations plummet, we question the likelihood of a near-term liquidity event that enables Amazon to realize a return. As always, Amazon requires a high degree of faith that its big-picture plans will make all of its moves (such as its investment in Gear.com) make sense. Near-term, we believe its stakes in eConsumer players could add to the stock's volatility (pull up a chart of CMGI to see what we mean), since the implied valuation is increasingly based on not only Amazon's core business but its incubation model. " Robbie Stephens was one of mazon's largest bulls especially when Keith benjamin was in charge there. It appears by the above comment management at Amazon is being questioned.