With all due respect I can only offer that it would be easy to confuse brains with a correcting and manic market, especially at the top end of a parabolic rise. While your calls were prescient, literally hundreds, if not thousands, of stock valuations have reacted within the parameters you've outlined here for the ELON share price...
Given your classical accounting training, would it be possible to offer some valuation analysis to explain to many of us what you believe to be a fair share price now, and going forward, and how future revenues might impact the share price given said market saturation with said "widgets"?
In he following excerpt from the recent company press release it seems to me that the picture is improving across the board for the company. Net losses are decreasing, revenues are increasing, while operating expenses have only slightly increased, margins are expanding, not decreasing, and the company is now shipping a Cisco certified and branded revenue generating product that I consider to be a step or two above a widget... and FWIW I think ELON products and patents are about a whole lot more than "saving electricity". Also, am I correct that these #s account for apx, 1 million more shares outstanding?
Revenues for the quarter ended March 31, 2000 were $11.4 million, an increase of 30% over revenues of $8.8 million for the same period in 1999. Net loss for the quarter ended March 31, 2000 was $651,000, or $0.02 per share, based on a weighted average of 33,651,000 common shares outstanding, compared to a net loss of $1.6 million, or $0.05 per share, based on a weighted average of 32,639,000 common shares outstanding in the first quarter of 1999. Gross margin for the quarter ended March 31, 2000 was 58.4%, compared with 57.9% for the same period in 1999. Total operating expenses for the quarter ended March 31, 2000 were $7.6 million, compared to $7.0 million for the same period in 1999.
``We are very pleased with the results of our first quarter,' said M. Kenneth Oshman, the Company's chairman, chief executive officer, and president. ``In March, we began shipments of our new i.LON(TM) 1000 Internet Server, a breakthrough product that enables millions of everyday devices networked with Echelon's LonWorks© technology in homes, buildings, factories, and transportation systems to become part of the Web. The i.LON 1000 paves the way for a wide range of new Internet-based markets and applications for industry and consumers alike. Initial demand for this important new product was very good. The quarter was notable for many very exciting and important announcements, highlighting the accelerating momentum of LonWorks networks around the globe.'
Echelon's free topology networking technology was adopted as an open American National Standards Institute (ANSI) standard under ANSI/EIA 709.3-1999. Designed to send information between everyday devices like appliances, lighting systems, heating and air conditioning controls, security systems, motors, and pumps, Echelon's free topology twisted pair technology employs advanced digital signal processing that automatically adapts to a wide range of wire types and compensates for different installation methods.
biz.yahoo.com
Please, you and AG will have to forgive my naivte', but it seems elon is on the cusp of being a whole lot more than a "story stock"... and for the life of me, I find it difficult to understand why companies like Cisco, Honeywell and Trane (not to mention a host of others mentioned here many times before) believe in the technology and concepts here, but you guys do not.
Believe me, I have nothing against short selling or the valuable information and perspective it has to offer, and your price calls have been right on target for the short term trades in this volatile market, for that personally I'm gratful, but are they really relevant to a long term investor here other than timing an entry that may be of little consequence 5 years down the road? Thanks for your consideration.
Regards,
JM |
