To: Douglas A. Sevy who wrote (71033 ) 4/21/2000 8:48:00 PM From: jmanvegas Read Replies (2) | Respond to
Doug: Sold 1/2 2 weeks ago, the rest this past week into the rally. It all depends on where the Naz goes. Let's assume the Naz tests near its lows, I see high 80's - low 90's which is 320-360 pre-split before the 4:1 split. Looking where we came from over one year ago, if you had been in QCOM at that time, you really couldn't complain. If the Naz breaks 3000, we could get as low as the 70's. If the Naz craps out and goes to the mid 2000 level, watch for that gap at 60 to be possibly filled. Now none of the above are predictions. But QCOM will not buck a downward trending tech market. From looking at the charts, that sideways basing action QCOM was trading in for the last few months broke down and is now resistance. And there would have to be some awfully excellent news or a renewed bullish upturn to pierce that resistance. I don't see that for now until the Fed eases up. I don't think they will based upon where the Naz closed on Thursday. However, we've got a few weeks before the Fed May meeting. So if the Naz craps out prior to that meeting, maybe the Fed will wise up and postpone any rate hikes. In addition, a declining Naz won't help the Dow stocks either although there continues to be a divergence. It would be that the Dow stocks would not get hit as hard. I truly believe cash is king and capital preservation is a core strategy at this time. But then again, I could be dead wrong, and the Naz could turn right in here and fly. But then the Fed would get more aggressive. So we are in a Catch-22 situation - surely not the best environment for stocks.
