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Technology Stocks : AUTOHOME, Inc -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: GraceZ who wrote (21316)	4/21/2000 6:18:00 PM
From: David Nelson	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 29970

A reasonable discourse. I don't think that it is necessary to be another AOL. I believe that AOL has raised the bar for other players. They have changed the parameters of the game. Being more AOL-like is not admirable. Ignoring or denying AOLs good aspects just because you don't possess them is not reasonable. Customers vote with their pocketbooks and the votes are in. Over one fifth of the computing public uses AOL. You learn in Business 1-101 that competitive environments tend to make the competitors look more and more alike. As new and useful features are added to a product, competitors pick up on these and add them to their offerings. After a very short period of time, products become nearly identical. Then in marketing parlance, marketeers advertise and take part in the act of minute product differentiation. My Ford is better than your Toyota because blah... After word processors start looking alike, one guy starts giving something away as an inducement, and on and on... This market is not mature yet but many things are known about the habits of the subscribers that are to be captured. AOL has identified most of these. To deny them is not a reasonable act. I offer the following for your consideration. 1. I don't accept the notion that broadband in and of itself is enough to survive. I don't believe that broadband is an end unto itself. I don't accept the "Big Pipe" propostion. 2. Microsoft now derives more than 25% of their revenues from internet services. MSN currently produces more content than Yahoo or AOL. Therefore MSFT is raising the bar to compete as well. If they have their way they will be the internet. Now we all know that's not possible but we also know of Bills proclivities in this area. Expect an offering other than satellite from Bill soon! 3. Expect Cisco which partnered recently to be a big player 4. Expect Yahoo to make a major move this year in the broadband area. 5. The notion of broadband as mainstream and therefore as a commodity will be a reality within 2 years even if ATHM closes their doors permanently this evening. Everyone will be using some sort of broadband. 5. Price wars are imminent and cable has a repieve for a limited period of time. 7. In the midst of a price war, only content providers will survive until there is a shake out of isps in the not too distant future. 8. Infrastructure will be owned by very few and will not be regional. ATHM could be one of these. 9. RBOCS will be forced to pander to content providers just as cable companies do now in the cable TV space. 10. AOL has the biggest network on the planet. All things considered, apart from an act of GOD, AOL will continue to grow it's network and broadband is only an upgrade in their eyes! 11. Since business isn't wired with coax, business will go by default to the RBOCS. 12. Mom and Pop companies that can't afford T1 will move to DSL by the millions. 13. Cable will be relegated to homes. Homes want content. 14. ATHM doesn't provide content. AOL provides content. 15. ATHM needs to provide quality content or they will eventually be eaten alive by the RBOCS, AOL, Yahoo, Cisco, MSFT, etc. 16. ATHM needs to build out their network rapidly and take advantage of this window that they enjoy. Content isn't nearly as important now as it will be in the future, and users will still sign-up on the merits of speed gains alone. 17. As DSL, cable competitors, and other broadband alternatives become available, content will become increasingly important. Otherwise in any area where there are alternatives, there will be a price war. These are my beliefs. If you disagree fine! I came here posessing these beliefs and have seen nothing here to change them, yet! Further I believe that ATHM management possesses these same beliefs, even if they don't want to admit them publicly! I'm not a gear head and I'm not concerned about the last mile. I'm concerned with the notion of broadband. The method used to obtain the desired result will change again soon anyway. Technologies come and go, but good management is hard to find. I'm betting on management here and hope I'm not wrong. I'm not a short term player, unless the situation calls for it. I bought ATHM because I think they have a good chance of competing and grabbing market share in the changeover to broadband. ATHM is also a pure play on broadband so I feel I can get the best bang for my buck. I hope I'm right. --Dave