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Technology Stocks : How high will Microsoft fly? -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Sir Francis Drake who wrote (42869)	4/21/2000 5:06:00 PM
From: johnd	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 74651

Here are MSFTs EPS growth rates for last 10 yrs. 89 42% 90 53% 91 58% 92 46% 93 32% 94 19% <=== Note; similar to now 95 23% <=== Note; similar to now 96 47% 97 54% 98 35% 99 60% 00 24% 01 ?? 44% 02 ?? 44% Don't get fooled. MSFT will endure and conquor.

To: Sir Francis Drake who wrote (42869)	4/21/2000 5:23:00 PM
From: Valley Girl	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 74651

...doesn't appear to be any UPSIDE...worry over paying cap gain taxes goes only so far...why sit on dead money...stock used to be a refuge from a troubled market... Agreed, agreed, agreed, and definitely agreed. These are the main reasons I've reluctantly been selling. If all tech stocks p/e is to be taken down... Not so sure. That's been the way of it lately, even with the earnings-free internet bubble stocks. But humour me, and let's look at an example - CSCO. (Readers please note, as the owner of 4000 shares of this fine company I'm not hoping for a drop!) So, like, it's trading at 180 times last year's earnings. The consensus 5-year growth estimate is 30%, so relative to the overvalued market that would be a 60 P/E. So it could drop by a factor of 3:1 just to reach parity with the general market, which is still overvalued by historical standards. By historical standards, the P/E should be 30. If the big bears (e.g. Fleckenstein) are correct, then a drop to the historical valuation would take us down by a factor of 6:1. Now, is MSFT going to drop from $75 to $25 or $15? ...seriously thinking of going massively short MSFT. Shorting's risky enough, why bother betting against this already-beaten-down stock when there are plenty of bubble stocks out there with far more downside potential?