Silicon Investor (SI) -- The First Internet Community

STOCKTALK

We've detected that you're using an ad content blocking browser plug-in or feature. Ads provide a critical source of revenue to the continued operation of Silicon Investor. We ask that you disable ad blocking while on Silicon Investor in the best interests of our community. If you are not using an ad blocker but are still receiving this message, make sure your browser's tracking protection is set to the 'standard' level.

Technology Stocks : KVH Industries, Inc. -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Sector Investor who wrote (409)	4/21/2000 7:59:00 PM
From: Sector Investor	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 7249

Here is a second attempt after reading through the 10Q for Q1 2000. I made a few adjustments. 1) I lowered the growth in S&M from 3% to 2%. 2) The new revolving line of credit they have looks like it costs 0.5% even if they don't use it. That amounts to $6,250 per quarter. I'll make the assumption that they don't use it in 2000, and I added the $6,250 to their interest expense. With rounding, this still looks the same on the spreadsheet, but does alter following numbers a bit. 3) The GM discussion confused me. First they referred to it as "Gross Profit as a percentage of sales", then just Gross Profit instead of Gross Margin. Then, in the CC they indicated if encumbrances were absent they would be comfortable with 42%-45% margins, but the 10Q indicated "flat or increase slightly when higher margin navigation products rebound". They did say Communications margins were getting better as direct costs were reduced 4%. Looking back to 1997 (when Communications sales were much lower), I see GMs in the mid-upper 40%s. I decided to leave my GM estimates alone for now, which rise to 41% by Q1 2001. 4) I changed my third revenue sub category title from "FOG" to "Sensor" as FOGs appear to be embedded in the other two categories. This category is for the new Power Industry sensors or other new sensor products. If anything, the 20% growth I set may be too conservative, as the market is large and growth rates for new products can be much higher than that for a while. But I left it alone in the interests of a conservative estimate. 5) I dropped Q4 1999 and added Q1 2001. I don't want to go too far out because of the lumpy military sales, but the growth rates, if they can be sustained begin to have dramatic effect here, so I kept the column in. 6) I still leave off taxes even though they state a 38% rate in the 10Q, because I don't know how to treat tax loss carry forwards. I'll let others extend this down to bottom line earnings. The resulting numbers look even a bit stronger than I originally posted. Still just a best effort attempt here. Do you own DD. Comments are appreciated. Q1 2000 Q2 2000 Q3 2000 Q4 2000 Q1 2001 PCT (000) omitted est est est est chng Net Sales 5.70 8.35 10.28 12.67 15.61 Communications 4.20 5.25 6.56 8.20 10.25 1.25 Navigation 1.60 2.40 2.88 3.46 4.15 1.20 Sensors 0.70 0.84 1.01 1.21 1.20 Cost of Sales 3.82 5.43 6.48 7.73 9.21 Gross Profit 1.88 2.92 3.80 4.94 6.40 Gross Margin 33% 35% 37% 39% 41% R&D exp 1.07 1.05 1.03 1.01 0.99 0.98 S&M exp 1.42 1.45 1.48 1.51 1.54 1.02 Admin exp 0.53 0.53 0.53 0.53 0.53 1.00 Income/(Loss) from Ops (1.14) (0.10) 0.77 1.90 3.35 Other Income (0.21) (0.21) (0.21) (0.21) (0.21) Income/(Loss) before Taxes (1.35) (0.32) 0.56 1.68 3.13