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Pastimes : All Clowns Must Be Destroyed -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Stcgg who wrote (28265)	4/21/2000 5:32:00 PM
From: hdl	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 42523

Luc does not communicate rationally. he does not make meaningful responses

To: Stcgg who wrote (28265)	4/21/2000 5:37:00 PM
From: MythMan	Respond to of 42523

Soft has an option overhang of 750 million shares. Somehow 17 Bill doesn't quite cover that. this is a co with 19 times sales multiple who's growth rate (sales and profits) are declining.. Nobody on this thread will agree with your assessment. I happen to think you are 100% WRONG.

To: Stcgg who wrote (28265)	4/21/2000 5:40:00 PM
From: yard_man	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 42523

Sounds like a "static" analysis to me. The relevant question seems to me is what kind of earnings / revenue growth do you reasonably expect going forward and how much are you willing to pay for it vs. the risk that you might not get your expected earnings / revenue growth. Where does the risk-free rate enter into your analysis and if it doesn't, why doesn't it? You are saying the same thing I think that other bulls have said here -- just buy good (relative) earnings growth and you are a winner. It simply isn't that easy (ok, maybe it has been that easy for the last five years or so).. And what about the "quality" of the earnings? If option grants are compensation -- how much are they really growing profits after truly accounting for employee compensation? Just some random thoughts ... <VBG>

To: Stcgg who wrote (28265)	4/21/2000 6:38:00 PM
From: Lucretius	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 42523

i see a co w/ a book value of $7 (that includes your cash btw if you don't know how book value is calculated... of course, i didn't take the time to check tangible book as it probably even lower as many of these techs have lots of intangibles). I also see a co who's main advantage and the reason for their enormous margins is a MONOPOLY on operating systems. that advantage is now being stripped away.... i price co's based on FUTURE earnings... i could care less about .43 this qtr; that's ancient history to me. MSFT (like other companies) is worth its assets and future earnings stream discounted back by the risk free int rate of government securities. (i see that int rate rising btw thus making the value of those future earnings even less). at around 50x earnings and 20x sales... i say its still egregiously overpriced... especially since nuclear winter is in the early stages of hitting the PC mkt (as evidenced by MSFT's sales and stmts concerning Q1 '00) and we should enter recession by July. There's also MSFT's option program that it uses to offset salary costs.. but we won't get itno that -g- i'd short the crap out of it here.... but i think there are better targets that will fall MORE -g- i'm no expert of Soft, but that's my crazy reasoning... no charts, no oscillators, no magazine covers, no bobby b pammy cups or triangles w/ parrell squares and a cherry on top.... just FACTS. don't be a clown. for soon.... ALL CLOWNS WILL BE DESTROYED... very soon. -g-