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Technology Stocks : Nokia (NOK) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Maurice Winn who wrote (4327)	4/22/2000 10:45:00 AM
From: tero kuittinen	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 34857

This should be a time of peaceful contemplation and meditation on the meaning of suffering... but what the hell, we might as well talk about telecom pricing issues. I suspect that some suffering is in store for cdma2000 advocates, so it's tangentially an Easter topic. In the mobile network biz - low prices are good. In the handset biz - low prices are good. It's only in the mobile phone upgrade market that high prices can be attractive; after the consumers have been hooked with cheap models they can be persuaded to ramp up spending later on. So of course, low entry level phones are important. That's why IS-95 networks are struggling in Hong Kong and Singapore. And that brings us back to W-CDMA vs. cdma2000. How can anyone argue that the early handset availability of cdma2000 can come anywhere near the W-CDMA phone market? Nokia, Ericsson, NEC, Panasonic, Mitsubishi - the world's leading 3G developers of consumer products are backing W-CDMA. That's the NTT-DoCoMo effect - vendors know the market will be there and it will be big. So they don't shy away from investing heavily on W-CDMA phones. On the other hand - nobody knows when and where cdma2000 may debut. It's this uncertainty that is gnawing at the minds of telecom executives like a famished sewer rat. And so we get this announcement that J-Phone, owned by Vodafone and British Telecom, is planning to apply for a 3G license in Japan. Maurice; do you admit that you know as well as I do which standard Voda and BT intend to use in Japan? Or do we need to contact the Psychich Friends Network again? This announcement means that not only are DoCoMo and Japan Telecom already committed to W-CDMA. Not only is DDI tipping over to W-CDMA. But two of the biggest mobile operators in the world are considering applying for a W-CDMA license in Japan. Count the numbers, Maurice. That would be four W-CDMA applications in Japan alone. The 3G market is shifting radically. Those analysts who have confidently touted cdma2000 as an international standard now have a lot of explaining to do. And if Qualcomm really intends to start a catfight with DDI, DoCoMo, British Telecom and Vodafone by applying for a Japanese 3G license for itself - hold on to your hat. The telecom world has never witnessed a component manufacturer going against three of the the world's most powerful and richest mobile operators. This could turn into a real passion play. Tero

To: Maurice Winn who wrote (4327)	4/22/2000 11:06:00 AM
From: arun gera	Respond to of 34857

>>[assuming the high prices are not a transition to disaster like Apple's high prices and declining market share in the early 1990s before the brilliant recent turnaround]. >> Maurice: Apple has partially been rescued by the internet. With the http protocol being more important than the computer operating system. I think that handset features on cell phones could be less important when high bandwidth is available on the handset or any other device in the true IP mode. Sooner or later the focus is going to shift from the handset to wireless applications, especially business applications. Right now the battle seems to be in the communication layer software. And it will go on for another two years before we see who the clear winner will be. Meanwhile, how do Nokia and Qualcomm compare on their abilities to deliver higher layer sofware applications for wireless use? Or is Microsoft going to take that market too? Arun