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Strategies & Market Trends : Gorilla and King Portfolio Candidates -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: richardmacintyre who wrote (23253)	4/21/2000 10:19:00 PM
From: Mike Buckley	Respond to of 54805

Richard, Your candor required a lot of strength. I hope others who might be less inclined to go public with their lack of due diligence will use your example as a reason to question if they did enough research to minimize risk. Being a valuation junkie, I'm happy to make any helpful comments I can in response to the ideas others present about the various stocks in question. --Mike Buckley

To: richardmacintyre who wrote (23253)	4/21/2000 10:37:00 PM
From: Juliet	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 54805

>>I'd love to see how the thread would rank the valuations of the G&K's based on Thursday's closing price -- including Uncle Frank if possible.<< Put a valuation on Uncle Frank? I heard they tried to do it once, but Bruce and Mike started duking it out over the discount rate, and it never could be resolved... As the story goes, Bruce wouldn't agree to anything less than 35% <ggggg> >>Yes I know, ignorant fools should not be in the game to start with, but even fools can learn!<< Oh, it sounds like we are in the same boat! I find my learning curve is accelerated when the pain is real... I learned A LOT the last couple weeks... that must be worth something in the long run <g> >>For those of us with cash (or, god forbid, margin) left for investing, which of our companies present the best value right now?... a specific discussion of the current "values" of the great companies discussed on this thread would be helpful.<< My personal vote (now that I've "learned") would be on SEBL, GMST, and QCOM (maybe INTC) for value & relative safety in murky times (at least that's what I wish could get more of now). I think I even saw UF once refer to QCOM and SEBL and INTC as "sure things" on another thread not long ago, but he might not admit it... And I would (and probably will) add little snippets if the market continues on a bear-like path. But I'm just a newbie knucklehead, snorkeling around the wreckage of my pebbles, looking for salvage (hoping to find a pearl). I would love to know what the Wise Ones say... Juliet@grinningatthecameralikeamonkey.com

To: richardmacintyre who wrote (23253)	4/21/2000 11:49:00 PM
From: LindyBill	Respond to of 54805

I have Cree and Elon and ETC, ETC, ETC. I am holding them rather than moving the money out to something else. I think these stocks will do very well the next few years, and, when I go down the list of my "losers" looking for something to sell to buy some INTC, I just don't want to sell any of them because I think they will do well, both short and long term. Hey, "time will tell"

To: richardmacintyre who wrote (23253)	4/22/2000 1:50:00 AM
From: Uncle Frank	Respond to of 54805

>> I'd love to see how the thread would rank the valuations of the G&K's based on Thursday's closing price -- including Uncle Frank if possible. I'll leave the valuation exercise to Merlin; he's simply the best. But I'll be happy to list my holdings and current allocations. QCOM 45% Gorilla entering 2nd Tornado CSCO 15% Gorilla. Best managed company in the world. NTAP 16% King in raging Tornado GMST 10% Primate awaiting Tornado SEBL 11% Gorilla in Tornado QQQ 6% My version of a money market INTC 2% Main Street Gorilla looking for new Tornado CASH -5% Tax balancing uf

To: richardmacintyre who wrote (23253)	4/22/2000 3:53:00 AM
From: Bruce Brown	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 54805

I'd love to see how the thread would rank the valuations of the G&K's based on Thursday's closing price....Which one's are still too high for a potential ltb&h? Which one's are good deals? Just a few quick comments. Based on improving margins, stability of growth and the semiconductor industry outlook, Intel presents a rather positive case for being a Silverback that looks enticing in terms of a 'deal'. Of the younger breed, I believe that Qualcomm represents a fairly valued enticing case for the long term as well in terms of a 'deal'. I'm not as 'comfortable' with valuations of Cisco and Oracle compared to their pre-1998 correction/recovery phase in terms of a 'deal', but that doesn't mean I'm selling and still consider them LTB&H if you already own them. I was just pointing out the two that looked the most enticing at the moment in terms of entry or additional entry. Let me address that issue a little more. I think that it is clear that with each successive correction/recovery since 1993/94, the 'flight to quality issue' has seen more money being directed towards Cisco, Intel, Oracle and Microsoft. We now have to add Qualcomm with that Gorilla group and think of the royalty plays like EMC, Sun, Dell and a few others as well. A lot of the cap weighted index measure of the Nasdaq in the last recovery period since the fall of 1998 saw money running to the 'flight to quality' of the big cap companies that weight that index like Intel, Cisco, Sun, Oracle, etc... . Couple that with the realization that these huge companies have indeed 'won' their respective 'games' and the market multiples of these types of stocks have regressed to the 'extreme' which accounts for that large percentage gain in the most recent recovery. Throughout the 80's and the early 90's - the players that were competing against these eventual winners were not valued so much below the eventual winners. Yet, as each correction and recovery took place, there was a flight to the quality of the perceived winners and the gap between the 'non-winners' continued to widen. Once the winners are realized that they basically print cash (look at their margins), the investing community piles in and we have seen that. I believe that over the last three to four corrections and recovery periods - we have seen this occur at a much higher level each time. These stocks have been the last to tank and are usually the first to bounce back. We call it gorilla gaming while much of the market calls it 'flight to safety'. It's an interesting phenomenon that makes some feel comfortable while others feel uncomfortable. Will the trend continue where each time there is nervousness, the nervous money flocks to the leaders? BB

To: richardmacintyre who wrote (23253)	4/22/2000 5:37:00 AM
From: Larry Grzemkowski	Read Replies (3) \| Respond to of 54805

RE VALUATIONS First of all IMHO valuations do count. What I like to use is YPEG. Here are my holdings and the YPEG as of 4/19 and 3/10 (about the market high).And when I say they do count you must realize the market has always been willing to pay more for the CSCOs of the world. Each individual must decide how much they are willing to pay so they can sleep at night. Two things make me sleep well AIM and GG. STOCK 4/19 YPEG------3/10 YPEG GMST 2.1-----------------4.96 QCOM 2.2-----------------2.72 CSCO 3.2-----------------3.38 SEBL 2.8------------------3.91 NTAP 3.8-----------------7.98 JDSU 3.3-----------------5.33 CTXS 1.1-----------------2.28 CREE 3.6-----------------5.81 WCOM 0.6-----------------0.66 (I treat wcom as cash) I remember being quite concerned back in march about the evaluations of NTAP, JDSU, GMST and CREE. But I was not willing to sell them. All of these valuations are from YHOO data and are based on next years earnings and the 5 year forward estimate of earnings growth. What I have been thinking about is selling WCOM, CREE and CTXS and sticking those funds back in my gorillas. But the problem I have is that CREE is in a taxable account and right now they would be short term capital gain. Hope this is of some help. Just keep in mind that I am just a new KID (I wish) on the block and not a thread elder (even though I am an old fart). Larry G