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To: djia101362 who wrote (15817)	4/22/2000 6:59:00 AM
From: bela_ghoulashi	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 35685

An interesting exchange of posts from the Yoda club on Yahoo: <Thrust> Rahod...... ToJoRose 4/22/00 1:31 am The fundamentals often don't look bad early in the course of a severe correction or bear market. If we assume that the stock market is a discounting mechanism, and it predicts economic conditions 6 months out, you can see that the fundamentals have plenty of time to deteriorate to match the market's performance...... <And parry> Re: Rahod...... / ToJoRose strike_de (50/M/Munich, Germany) 4/22/00 6:37 am I beg to differ completely with your analysis of the stock market as a discounting mechanism. If that were the case, how can the Naz be at 5100 one week and at 3600 the next ? Which 'discount' is the correct one ??? The stock market is totally psychological, based on people's unpredictable and nervous perceptions rather than a lead indicator of improving or deteriorating fundamentals. If your theory is correct, then why didn't fundamentals deteriorate after the very severe 1998 crash and the 1999 lengthy correction ? Indeed, it was investors' realization that the fundamentals were actually IMPROVING which pulled the markets back up and made them soar to new highs. This recent crash is no different. As soon as the herd realizes that fundamentals are improving, interest rates are peaking (who cares about another 0.5 % ?), and that numerous Naz stocks have blown away earnings in their traditionally WORST quarter, it (the herd) will start chasing the fundamentals again. In summary, the stock market is a pretty lousy lead indicator. jmho, Strike