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To: smolejv@gmx.net who wrote (8263)	4/22/2000 10:34:00 AM
From: MonsieurGonzo	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 11051

DJ> warez biz... ORCL is database is the basic plumbing of commercial accounting and e-commerce website systems, ja? System Integrators make money on new DBMS implementation but the bread-and-butter of their biz has always been DBMS maintenance contracts. If we presume that the rate of Dot.Com startups has peaked, then the growth of new DBMS implementations is reduced; this would affect ORCL's revenue stream. If we presume that there will be a shakeout and/or consolidation of the existing Dot.Coms, then the volume of DBMS maintenance contracts is reduced; this would affect System Integrators' revenue stream. If there is a Dot.Com shakeout, then there should be a glut of DBMS programmers and server system administrators within six months. personally, I expect the warez biz as we know it to collapse; even MSFT will downsize, imho. What's growing is firmware - stuffing O/S code into these "palm" and "phone" and "set-top boxes" devices, as well as automobile engine-mangement systems and plain old household appliances. Software companies that specialize in firmware for "programmable devices" should prosper and may become takeover targets -? -Steve