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Technology Stocks : Qualcomm Incorporated (QCOM) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: waverider who wrote (71077)	4/22/2000 1:17:00 PM
From: waverider	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 152472

Final Part: And here comes the earnings model: (well, I have a low fidelity Excel sheet for this one which does not come across on Yahoo. Will have to do it the hard way! First we estimate the average sales price for chip sets. Based on historical data of Q1 and Q2, I derive an average chip price of $23.04. This includes the presumed decline of ASP by 5% per quarter . A margin of 35% delivers a net profit of $8.06 per chip. Then I estimate chip sales for Q3 to be between 14.5M and 17M which leads to earnings of 117M to 137M (lets assume 129M for the moment). A trend analysis of License and Royalty payments in relation to chipset sales reveals prospective earnings of 146M to 274M (I know, this is a huge span, however, lets assume that to be 184M for the moment). Further I assume QWS to contribute flat earnings of 68M for Q3. Adding all this up reveals pre tax earnings of 381M for Q3 at a tax rate of 38% distributed to 801M shares (diluted) results in earnings of 29.5c for Q3. I know this might be a little bit hard to understand, but as I said, unfortunately I can not post my Excel sheet on the Yahoo board. So, whoever is interested to have a closer look at the sheet just let me know by sending an eMail to my Yahoo address. Bottom line is, earnings for Q3 look very solid and my model suggests (contrary to the short example above) that earnings could be well north of 30c. Ok, now shoot. Any comment is welcome. Love and Eggs AGIAT