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Technology Stocks : JDS Uniphase (JDSU) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: JMD who wrote (9373)	4/22/2000 5:44:00 PM
From: A.L. Reagan	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 24042

Mike, David, et. al. Series of great posts today. Agree wholeheartedly with Doyle. We are getting some much needed creative destruction now, and it is a good thing that so many Todtmans are out there right now waving yellow flags in the face of the "Stuart" crowd. Biggest risk we had which seems to be abating is price of crude. Effects of wellhead prices two months ago now showing up in numbers. If we stayed at $30 bbl I would join the gold bugs. Doesn't appear to be the case. Recessions/depressions require bigger triggers than MSFT, Abbey, etc. (Like wars, oil embargoes, massive government deficits, inability to manage inflation, etc.) COMPX probably reasonably valued right now between 3300-3900. Could go to 2750 S/T, (way, way oversold) not lower. (At 2750 Todtman will see all the fear he can handle!) Recent hits will/have wrung out much bubble speculation. 10-year Treasuries look good. No monster inflation hint over there. Credit AG. T-10's better benchmark for building up risk-adjusted discount rates for stocks than today's Fed funds rate. Inverted yield curve not a problem because short-end does not reflect free market but Fed intervention. Government surplus is huge. As Doyle observed, boomers in heavy save/investment mode. (But those T-10 yields don't look so good to us from the savings/investment side!) Still stocks with air to be let out. Others are too cheap. Some maybe just right. Time to earn our stripes as investors, not mo-mo gamblers. JDSU looks pricey on pure P/E - but the market has never since maybe the 50's valued companies primarily on P/E's. The fundamentals will win out in the end. All JMHO. Great discussion today. Thanks.