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To: Chung Lee who wrote (101958)4/22/2000 8:55:00 PM
From: Eric Wells  Read Replies (2) | Respond to of 164684
 
Yes if you based popular opinions solely on Maria's one show,

Chung - I don't - and it appears that you don't either. In reality, outside of the Clown and MDD threads on SI, most people I know are not bearish - people I know are not necessarily overly-bullish, but they don't see the market testing its recent lows any time soon.

One area of concern that I see is the fact that James Cramer appears to be bearish (if you subscribe to TheStreet.com) - this is the man who has been overwhelmingly bullish for the past 2-3 years. In fact, I've never seen the guy express such fear - even during market dips during October and April of last year. Is Cramer right? Who knows.

The markets are unpredictable. And the trend over the past few years has been to buy the dip. But such dip buying has occured in environments where Fed rate hikes were not so prevalent - and the CPI growth was much lower. But it appears that inflation may be catching up with us now - and that we may see more rate hikes in the near time - even if the market continues to go down (Greenspan doesn't base his decisions on the market after all - or so he says). My personal view is that a lot more people lost a lot more money the first two weeks of April than at any time since the fall of 1998 - and perhaps even earlier (October '87?). Are people as eager to jump back in and drive the Nasdaq higher - back up to 5000? I don't know. No one knows.

My only gauge for next week is Microsoft. With the uncertainty of the DOJ punishment proposal on Tuesday, and the now known slowdown in earnings growth - well I feel pretty certain that there are some MSFT shareholders that might be compelled to sell on Monday. And recent history has shown that selling of MSFT can lead to selling of other stocks. Cramer dumped all his MSFT shares in after-hours trading on Thursday - and I believe he's held MSFT since the inception of his hedge fund (again, it's a difficult data point to interpret).

Whatever the direction of the market on Monday - best of luck to you.

-Eric