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Strategies & Market Trends : MDA - Market Direction Analysis -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: HairBall who wrote (47749)	4/22/2000 11:47:00 PM
From: Zeev Hed	Respond to of 99985

I think that the record trade deficit is due to the US volunteering in time of world distress to be the "consumer of last resort". That is why the dollar went all the way to 148 yen, now, I expect a period of return to a more rational situation of about $100 to $150 billions trade deficit per year, and maybe, who knows, in five years, after few mini recessions here, can I dream of a balanced trade? Once the dollar breaks the 100 yen barrier, and the Euro float backs to parity or within five percent above parity (which is one of my "medium term" expectations, leading next year to a bear market as international liquidity flow to the US is reduced). If we did not open the flood gates to imports, by now the 1998 Asian malaise would have been a world wide recession causing a general contraction of possibly 5% in world Growth Product, and a real nasty bear market. Zeev