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To: Peter J Hudson who wrote (4338)	4/23/2000 10:53:00 AM
From: tero kuittinen	Read Replies (3) \| Respond to of 34857

Let's separate two issues here. One is whether 1XRTT is technically a 3G standard - the other is what most people regard as the 3G competition. Most people - including you, Peter - regarded the 3G battle as something that would involve current GSM, TDMA, PDC and IS-95 operators. This was the big topic of 1999 - which 3G standard these four second-generation camps would choose? Most people enthusiastic about Qualcomm claimed that PDC and GSM could well decide to adopt cdma2000. There would be a huge, untapped market here for Qualcomm. Most people - including you, Peter - thought that it would be impossible that any IS-95 operator would even contemplate implementing W-CDMA. Right now, it looks like the 3G battle will never even start. Not only are all GSM operators going for W-CDMA - all PDC operators are going for it as well. The ability of cdma2000 to expand beyond the IS-95 base may well turn out to be zero. Actually - less than zero. Because there's the clincher; one major IS-95 operator is already signalling a willingness to adopt W-CDMA. Hutchison, Telstra and Optus may all end up choosing W-CDMA for Australia. Hong Kong is suddenly up for grabs. This is the process I have been discussing for more than a year - how the standardization process can turn into a stampede in favor of the stronger contender. If that happens, all the bets are off. The situation is nothing like you thought it would be. It's nothing like the American commentators forecasting a world divided between cdma2000 and W-CDMA thought it would be. And do I get any credit for being right just this once? Do I get any credit for going out on a limb before the W-CDMA camp started looking like the big winner? Not in this life. When I note that Qualcomm has abruptly stopped highlighting cdma2000 as a 3G standard and begun emphasizing 1XRTT and HDR as 3G standards - I think you know what my point is. What's notable here is the attempt to avoid admitting that cdma2000 is losing the 3G battle by putting the spotlight on the IS-95 upgrades. Tero