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To: double-plus-good who wrote (65131)	4/23/2000 9:39:00 AM
From: BigBull	Read Replies (3) \| Respond to of 95453

++good, I noticed that OSX formation, as well. The airline index is not nearly as clear and is much more muddled. What you are arguing by coupling those two indicies together is falling oil prices and a robust economy. Airlines are just as sensitive to economic conditions as they are to fuel prices. A better bear case for the OSX would be to compare it to an interest rate sensitive index like S&L's. That case is in fact clearer, but has much different implications. Recession or marked economic slowdown. With the fed raising rates one simply cannot ignore that possibility. Having said that, there is one extremely strong contervailing argument - "The Price of Oil - Stupid" ;o} futures.tradingcharts.com futures.tradingcharts.com futures.tradingcharts.com futures.tradingcharts.com futures.tradingcharts.com The out month charts are even stronger looking and show that the long term trend in crude prices has held, for the time being. It will be interesting to see if the MSFT news brings the final leg down in the Naz that I am expecting and wether market players combine that with fed hikes and conclude recession is imminent. For now, I don't think they will. At any rate, it will all be decided in this week or maybe a few days more. I'm not totally convinced on any scenarios, which is why I still have lots of cash. Monday and Tuesday will decide just about everything for me, though. If the OSX is forming an H&S top it will crash with the rest of the market. The scenario I am working with now is that the US economy slows to 4% GDP but that the rest of the world's growth holds steady or increases for the next 2 qtrs, based on increasing internal consumption. This leaves the supply/demand fundamentals for crude very much intact, ie. 4% world GDP. But it is a very provisional scenario and subject to change as action on the ground dictates.