Hi folks,from The Bull Market Report"...the indexes and specific sectors are on the way back up."
The Bull Market Report - bull-market.com
THE BULL MARKET REPORT Daily for The Weekend, April 22-23, 2000
Volume 29, #16
On the Internet, there is no Shortage of Information, but Wisdom is a
Valued Commodity.
To view the newsletter on the web, click here: bull-market.com
MARKET INDICES FROM AROUND THE WORLD
THURSDAY, April 20, 2000
(U.S. Markets Closed Friday, April 21, 2000)
INDEX PRICE CHANGE DAILY% WTD% MTD% YTD%
UNITED STATES MARKETS
DOW JONES 10844 169 1.6 5.2 -1 -6
THE NASDAQ 3644 -63 -1.7 9.7 -20 -10
THE S&P 500 1435 7 0.5 5.7 -4 -2
RUSSELL 2000 482 -4 -0.9 6.2 -11 -4
G. SACHS INTERNET 466 -10 -2.2 11.9 -28 -35
TREASURY BONDS
10 YEAR 5.99%, up 1 basis point +10bp -3bp -45bp
30 YEAR 5.83%, down 2 basis points +4bp -2bp -66bp
EUROPEAN MARKETS
UK FT-SE 100 6241 56 0.9 1.0 -5 -10
FRANCE CAC 40 6235 68 1.1 2.8 -1 5
GERMANY DAX 7158 -59 -0.8 -0.8 -6 3
ASIAN MARKET
JAPAN NIKKEI 225 18959 -127 -0.7 -7.2 -7 0
HONG KONG HANG SENG 15367 -60 -0.4 -4.8 -12 -9
AMERICAS MARKETS
BRAZIL BOVESPA 15203 277 1.9 2.8 -15 -11
CANADA TSE 300 8960 -74 -0.8 5.7 -5 6
MEXICO BOLSA 6447 -237 -3.6 2.1 -14 -10
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COMMENTARY
This past week was certainly a topsy-turvy one, and it kept a lot of
investors and traders guessing the whole time. Still, after what is now
being referred to as "bloody Friday" investor confidence seems to have
improved and the overall market condition is on the mend. More to the
point, the indexes and specific sectors are on the way back up. The
Nasdaq finished the week up an impressive 10% and the Dow was certainly no
slouch, up 5.2% on the week.
For the most part buyers appear to have been motivated by cheap prices and
strong earnings. Still, even good earnings aren't a guarantee, as
investors are scrutinizing reports for any signs of weakness, just looking
for a reason not to buy. This was most prominently demonstrated by the
lack of response to the great earnings reported by Intel (INTC, $115) and
IBM (IBM, $104).
Still, you have to expect investors to be skittish right now. Quite
frankly, you should be conservative in your approach to the market. This
is not the time to be looking for the home run, but rather for solid
companies at discounted prices.
In the upcoming week, investors will have their eyes squarely focused on
Thursday's release of the employment cost index. After investors screamed
bloody murder with last week's reported jump in the consumer price index
and inflation fears running rampant in the trading pits, many are
naturally concerned with the potential effect of this week's key data. As
always, we will not be making predictions on upcoming data, nor will we
take a position on anticipation of the data. What we are anticipating is
a strong reaction by the market to the data, be it positive or negative.
The moral of the story is that there is going to serious volatility in the
market next week, and it is going to involve external factors.
There are some big hitters reporting earnings early next week with eBay
(EBAY, $150) and Priceline.com (PCLN, $68) on Monday, CheckFree (CKFR,
$34) on Tuesday, and Amazon (AMZN, $52) on Wednesday. We will have plenty
to watch all week, which means a lot more excitement ahead!
Big company earnings reports and highly influential market data? Wow, is
this going to be an exciting week or what!
Have a great weekend.
Todd Shaver
Editor in Chief
The Bull Market Report
Washington, DC
[Editors Note: The markets were closed for Good Friday, resulting in a
slower than usual news day]
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IN THIS ISSUE
1. MCI WORLDCOM MULLS ORANGE BID, TAPS SALOMON
2. BRISTOL-MYERS POSSIBLE MERGER TARGET
3. SEVENTH INNING - "BALANCE" HOW WINNING TRADERS DEAL WITH STRESS
4. RESEARCH DEPARTMENT
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1. MCI WORLDCOM MULLS ORANGE BID, TAPS SALOMON
MCI WorldCom (WCOM, $40) is considering a bid for British wireless carrier
Orange and has reportedly hired investment banker Salomon Smith Barney as
its advisor.
COMMENT: No real surprise here. MCI did not successfully bid for a
wireless telephone license in the UK, but still desperately wants to
expand business in the UK in a effort to establish a beachhead in the
highly coveted and well-developed British wireless market. We would not
be surprised to see MCI WorldCom move quickly on this one. And what a
move that would be. We LOVE MCI WorldCom and this is just one more reason
why.
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2. BRISTOL-MYERS POSSIBLE MERGER TARGET
With the future of blood-pressure drug Vanlev uncertain, Bristol-Myers
Squibb (BMY, $50) may find itself an acquisition target or a merger
player. Bristol-Myers' plans of launching the next pill destined for
multibillion dollar annual sales were put on hold when federal officials
raised concerns that the drug may cause severe facial swelling and impair
breathing in some patients.
Those worries led Bristol Meyers to withdraw its application for Vanlev
until more studies can be completed, a move that will delay launch of the
pill until at least late next year.
COMMENT: A little bit of bad news and already the vultures are circling.
This most recent turn of events has put the company in quite a situation.
Their plight is made more interesting because their value as a company is
still very strong, but their stock price has been hurt badly by the drug
release delay. We don't think that Bristol-Meyers is really looking to be
acquired, so if this were to happen, it would probably be at a hefty
premium. Investors probably don't have a lot to worry about there. In
fact, what could be better.
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3. SEVENTH INNING - "BALANCE" HOW WINNING TRADERS DEAL WITH STRESS
Stress is a factor in the Online Trading Athlete's world. Successful
athletes are able to effectively deal with stress on a regular basis.
They view stress as a necessary part of their game situation. It gives
them the edge they need to stay on their toes. Stress, when out of
control, can have a detrimental impact on the athlete and lead to poor
performance and eventual burnout. How well you handle stress can be a
deciding factor in how successful your career is as an Online Trading
Athlete. Three strategies that athlete's use to manage their level of
stress are Time Outs, Energizing, and Rest & Recover.
TIME OUTS
Most competitive sports have access to using 'time outs'. This provides
the team with an opportunity to regroup and refocus. Coaches often offer
advice and strategies at these brief breaks in the game.
As an Online Trading Athlete, you have the ability to call a time out for
yourself whenever you need it. Take advantage of this opportunity to
adjust your game plan or refocus your thoughts.
Time outs are great ways to break up negative patterns and help you find
your trading rhythm. The idea is to play the game rather than letting the
game play you. The hardest part about calling a time out is realizing
when you need it and being disciplined enough to use it. As a competitor,
you don't want to take yourself out of the action, not even for a second,
because you think you might miss that great opportunity that is going to
turn things around for you.
Stop looking for that one homerun. Be patient and trust your skills.
Don't worry, the money will still be there tomorrow. The only question is
-- Are you going to be making it or losing it?
ENERGIZING
Plain and simple, there are two things that all athletes must energize:
their thoughts and their bodies.
Energizing thoughts are a combination of two strategies we talked about in
the 5th Inning, using self talk and having a Positive Trading Attitude
(PTA). They are short words or phrases that trigger an emotional response
in your mental approach. A baseball player, having a poor game, may use
the phrase, 'Attack the ball' or visualize becoming a freight train in
order to revive their competitive attitude. As an Online Trading Athlete,
energizing thoughts are your weapons for success. Think success -- be
success. It can mean the difference between just going through the
motions and making bad trades or reacting to the moment and going for the
kill.
Energizing thoughts are not magic potions, because without your body, you
are not going anywhere. Therefore, as an Online Trading Athlete, you also
need to Energize your body by being physically well rested and properly
nourished. This means getting an adequate amount of sleep and eating
reasonably nutritious foods throughout the trading day. Skipping
breakfast and/or lunch can cause an athlete to become irritable and
distracted. Once again, be smart and use a Time Out to energize your
body. It is tough enough to be successful in this game so give yourself
the best opportunity possible to reach your goals by properly feeding and
resting your body.
REST & RECOVER
Look, you are going into battle 8-10 hours a day, five days a week. (Some
of you die-hard athletes are in the game even longer !). It is critical
that you manage your recovery time and the truth is, it is something that
we all know but rarely do.
When you are in the game waiting for the pitcher to throw the ball, focus
on the pitch. When the game is done for the day, focus on Recovery. Take
full advantage of this recovery time. That means, when today's game is
over, DO SOMETHING ELSE until it is time to put your uniform back on
tomorrow. Watch a movie, read a book, go out to eat, sleep, etc. Your
long-term success depends on how well you are able to recover between
games so that your batteries are recharged when the market opens again.
The harder and longer you go, the more time you are going to need to
recover. Think Rest & Recovery are a waste of time? Well, think again.
It is only your ego that is telling you that if you step out of the game,
for even a minute, that you are going to miss that 'great opportunity'
that is going to turn your day, week, or even year around.
Wake up ! Who are you kidding? This game was being played, won, and lost
long before you were even born, so get over it. If you are praying for
that 'lucky break' or that 500 foot homerun, it may be time for you to
start sending some resumes out.
Sure, take your swings at the plate but be patient and pick out your
pitches. When the last out is made and today's game is over, focus on
energizing yourself for tomorrow's game rather than daydreaming about
missed opportunities and what could have been. Of course, learn from your
mistakes, but remember, they are JUST mistakes so move on. Avoid dwelling
on them because there are still a lot of games left in the season.
Stress is a part of competition. What separates success from failure is
the athlete's ability to deal with stress. Understanding how and when to
use Time Outs, Energizing, and Rest & Recover can help you reach your peak
potential as an Online Trading Athlete.
Next week we will take a look at playing this game 'one trade at a time'
and focusing on the Here-and-Now. So until then, Stay Focused.
Hey, thanks again for your great responses to our '9 Inning' series. We
also wanted to let our new readers know that we offer personalized
coaching services for those Online Trading Athletes who are looking to
sharpen their mental game. Check out our website www.FocusedTrader.com
for more information on how we can help you become a successful Online
Trading Athlete.
Keep your eye on the ball and your head in the game.
Doug Hirschhorn & Shane Murphy
Trader@FocusedTrader.com
Phone: (203) 459-0515
Website: www.FocusedTrader.com
Copyright 2000, TheFocusedTrader
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4. RESEARCH DEPARTMENT
I. CheckFree Initiated
Prudential Volpe Tech initiated coverage of CheckFree with a rating of
Hold.
II. Internet Capital Group Initiated
Credit Suisse First Boston initiated coverage of Internet Capital Group
(ICGE, $44) with a rating of Strong Buy
[We can't agree more.]
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