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Gold/Mining/Energy : Gold Price Monitor -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: goldsheet who wrote (51871)	4/23/2000 6:21:00 PM
From: Enigma	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 116762

The problem is that neither you nor anyone else can give a figure for gold loans because it is not published. And aren't the CBs selling 300 tons a year not 400? d

To: goldsheet who wrote (51871)	4/23/2000 8:29:00 PM
From: Bob Dobbs	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 116762

Bob: I dispute some of your figures, which are apparently from GFMS. Hedging is now running at more than 100 tons a month this year. On the demand side, over the last ten years, demand has increased some 5% per year as compared to an average supply increase of 2.5%, as you quote. That means the supply deficit is growing. Veneroso, who has the only rational numbers, thinks the supply deficit is now over 1000 tons/year. <<The 10 year average CBs sales is 265mt and 10 year average forward sales was 154mt, combined 419mt. The extra primary mine production is a much more significant factor than forward sales and central banks sales combined.>> I dispute your hedging figures. The real figure is far more than 400 tons in the last three years. In 1994-5 alone the Bank of England showed net borrowed gold of more than 1000 tons per year. This is compared with GFMS figures of only 350 tons per year during this two year period. That is a severe discrepancy, and this is data from just two years. GFMS has a problem capturing real demand data. Let me ask you this: What do you think the outstanding gold short position is? How do you explain the gold price going nowhere in 1999 despite net Asian buying after the net Asian dishording of 1998? Bob