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Technology Stocks : Lucent Technologies (LU) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: telecomguy who wrote (14500)	4/23/2000 10:19:00 PM
From: telecomguy	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 21876

My point in the last post is that McGinn & Co. HAD to have known that they were going to miss badly LONG before they announced because the nature of LU and NT's business is that the revenues are generated by handful of large contracts that either make great quarters or lousy quarters depending on whether they deliver. So I cannot buy that McGinn did not know that LU was not going to deliver on the high end of the optics since now it has come out that it will take 2 to 3 quarters to catch up.

To: telecomguy who wrote (14500)	4/23/2000 10:20:00 PM
From: Techplayer	Respond to of 21876

tg, OK. My bet is on LU based on valuation at this point. The normal summer correction will kill a bloated fish like NT far more quickly. NT has higher DSO's, lower margins, and incomplete portfolio of products, a rapidly depleting router team in Billerica, a couple of second rate multi-billion dolar acquisitions under its belt and a prayer at holding the jockstrap for CSCO in the enterprise space. Good luck. And thanks for the insults. You truly are obnoxious. It is no wonder that you have so many detractors. tp

To: telecomguy who wrote (14500)	4/24/2000 7:33:00 AM
From: Mr.Fun	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 21876

The decision not to emphasize 10Gbps channel speeds was made in late 1996, when it was not so obvious that the market would move to that speed. In fact, LU's largest customers, AT&T at the head of the line (remember this was just past divestiture) told LU NOT to go to the faster speed, but to increase channel count via DWDM. You act as though LU was alone in making this call, but every other major optical vendor aside from NT made the same decision. Where were Alcatel, Siemens, NEC and Ciena with their 10G solutions? By the time it became clear that 10G was a necessity, NT already had a 15 month lead in development. This is likely due to NT's relatively different customer base - WorldCom, Sprint and MCI, none of which bought anything from LU before the acquisition of ASND. QWest, Global Crossing, Level3, Williams, et al. were not much of a consideration in 1996, but you have to give NT the credit for a bold move. Don't act as though it was soooo obvious after the fact.