To: Berney who wrote (8267 ) 4/24/2000 8:16:00 AM From: MonsieurGonzo Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 11051
TB> Bear With Us... yeah, I hear you man. Another way to look at it is to take all the capitalization weights out of the index stocks - they say that the raw number of stocks is simply going sideways. (um, don't they always do that?) otoh, I'd argue that - given ~3.5% inflation and a ~6.5% risk-free yield , "going sideways" in equities is a -10% annual rate of kapital decay. Of course a real "Bear Market" is a relentlessly painful thing, far beyond the capability of short attention span post-sixties types to cope with without medication. I think of the SnP sto "rolling around in the dirt", as Paul puts it; occasional, violent rallies followed by Yet Another Disappointment. Kinda like what oil service sector stocks went through awhile back. Kinda like what BONDs have been going through for two years. So, agreed - not a Bear Market . I keep telling myself, "this is the soft landing: the made-for-suburban Americans, election-year stock market". But, is this a Growth Market ? ...imagine your typical 401K American Investor, who holds VFINX - Vanguard S&P500 Fund (because he can't buy SPY in a 401K - what a scam!) and he's been up, been down, been all around - and for all that over the last year and a half - he may as well be compounding $$$ at ~8% APR, playing with his wife. The "tech" stocks were his outlet and excuse for not being there : a rationale for ignoring the realities of the global economy and the Federal Reserve; a socially acceptable way to gamble without having to know what the hell business 'Inktomi' was in {grin} Maybe not a "Bear Market" but, certainly not a "fun" market anymore, for most folks. If I'd-a known this was gonna be work , patooie, why I'd-a never left MayBelle back thar on the farm (^_^) -Steve