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Technology Stocks : How high will Microsoft fly? -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: johnd who wrote (43070)	4/24/2000 8:13:00 AM
From: Captain Jack	Respond to of 74651

johnd -- I think I'll pick up some of the others coming down in sympathy instead,, CSCO, INTC,, etc..

To: johnd who wrote (43070)	4/25/2000 5:19:00 AM
From: Byron Xiao	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 74651

John, how the hell did you get to those numbers? $80 for the internet company of MSFT? That's over $400B, more than the twice of the combined value of AOL/Time Warner + Yahoo, which owns three of the top 4 portals in the whole frigging planet. Who the hell will give that kind of valuation to MSN and some junks? I would be crazy to pay anything more than 50B. which is comparable to Yahoo. Even though they have a monopoly on desktop PC's OS now, when others offer free OS, you can't keep charging them 200 bucks per PC when the hardware only costs 600 bucks, right? The Windows company would be facing some very tough competitions. That's going to be a cut-throat market. I say it doesn't deserve to be valued at more than 150B. The Office/apps company should do very, very well. I actually incline to pay $50 for that part. No one is even threatening MS office at this point. Overall, the break up company would worth $85 in the current tech doomsday environment. A breakup at this price is cheap in my opinion. Now, if we are in the same climate as when NASDAQ hit 5K, then how high it will go will be driven by how greedy investors are. But I see value at around $65, definitely. The internet company alone willbe worth $80 a share. The windows company worth about $60, the apps company $80. You are getting $220 worht of company for peanuts.

To: johnd who wrote (43070)	4/25/2000 5:29:00 AM
From: SunSpot	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 74651

In case of a break-up, I think Microsoft Office will quickly become cross-platform (otherwise the DOJ would get after them). This will reduce the value of the Windows company. Since the world will be more diverted on platforms after that, Microsofts current web-sited will have to be changed to work on something else than Windows (= activex free). If they don't do that, I think the DOJ will get after them again. Such a change would have a dramatic negative impact on how the websites look and feel, and this will reduce the value of the internet company. I still see Microsoft Office as Microsofts biggest asset. But it will only deliver full value if it becomes cross-platform, otherwise they will lose market share and eventually they will no longer be the market standard. So this is the part of Microsoft that could benefit from a breakup.