To: robert b furman who wrote (1892 ) 4/24/2000 12:11:00 PM From: Ross Respond to of 7827
Hi, From my reading of the reports, it isn't obvious that an accounting change is completely (or even partially) responsible for the lower earnings. It looks to me that the main cause was that they had sales that were about $1.5 million lower than the previous quarter, but the cost of sales is the same and R&D was up. That resulted in a profit of 13.7% of sales compared to 16.5% the previous quarter. Including more sales of Summit handlers would not necessarily have changed that. 13.7% seems to be more typical of their results than 16.5%, and my guess is that it depends on the mix of products they are selling. Did anyone ask that at the conference call? On the subject of the deferred sales of Summit handlers, they said that they included $11.8 million and an additional $24.1 million had been shipped (with $17.0 million recorded as customer advances for that $24.1 million). I don't see where they said that the $11.8 million was last quarter's included here and that the whole $24.1 million would be included next quarter). If that's what they meant, then this quarter is really worth an extra $1.7 million or so in profits (with the 13.7% profit - roughly $0.08/share). But the report shows $18.5 million included as customer advances at the end of last quarter, so that doesn't seem to show a big change quarter to quarter. That's why I'm not sure that the lower earnings were due to an accounting change. That said, the backlog is $84.7 billion. Sales are usually a bit bigger than the backlog, so I'll guess $88 million in sales next quarter. With a 13.7% profit, that's $12 million in profit, or a about $0.60/share. People seem to be selling like this is the start of the semi equip downturn, but the orders don't show that. Then, of course, you don't see the downturn in the orders until it's too late. I don't know whether the number of shares traded today suggests that one of the fund managers (who maybe asked questions on the conference call) is selling out their holdings. Ross