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Strategies & Market Trends : Group Therapy -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Alan C. Zezula who wrote (1160)	4/24/2000 3:48:00 PM
From: E. Graphs	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 4564

Al, In the face of it, can you still afford to laugh? Just got this off the driller thread. The Day the Nasdaq Died (to the tune of American Pie) A long, long week ago I can still remember how the market used to make me smile What I'd do when I had the chance Is get myself a cash advance And add another tech stock to the pile. But Alan Greenspan made me shiver With every speech that he delivered Bad news on the rate front Still I'd take one more punt I can't remember if I cried When I heard about the CPI I lost my fortune and my pride The day the NASDAQ died So bye-bye to my piece of the pie Now I'm gettin' calls for margin 'Cause my cash account's dry It's just two weeks from a new all-time high And now we're right back where we were in July We're right back where we were in July Did you buy stocks you never heard of? QCOM at 150 or above? 'Cos George Gilder told you so Now do you believe in Home Depot? Can Wal-Mart save your portfolio? And can you teach me what's a P/E ratio? Well, I know that you were leveraged too So you can't just take a long-term view Your broker shut you down No more margin could be found I never worried on the whole way up Buying dot coms from the back of a pickup truck But Friday I ran out of luck It was the day the NAAAASDAQ died

To: Alan C. Zezula who wrote (1160)	4/24/2000 4:11:00 PM
From: country boy	Read Replies (3) \| Respond to of 4564

Al and Crew: Well, I got a wild hair and went long at 3:30. Bought a bit more LSI at 53 1/2, IDTI at 39 1/4, XLNX at 62, and dumped the ALTR and MU puts for small profit. Why go long? Just watching the market: Naz came back some 130 points; MSFT responsible for 1/2 of the whole drop (70 points). When it comes down to it, I should be in HD, WMT, and MRK. Al, I too continue to be amazed at how low good earning stocks trade in this market. Don't agree with it but I'm trying to play it. I was hoping to get LSI at 48ish, I don't see a close under 50 as long as the NAZ holds 3200. Forty points off the high looks good, but don't ever say it can't go lower. Let's hope for a crushing earnings report and great foreward outlook. With ho-hum numbers, it's 50 or lower... cb

To: Alan C. Zezula who wrote (1160)	4/24/2000 4:29:00 PM
From: Duane L. Olson	Respond to of 4564

Al, I'm sure E! and CB can join me in remembering the many times we have gone wrong on the market. Can't even tell you if we're right going forward; just nice to have some cash when the market overshoots. Sorry you started working the recovery a little early. But you're too smart not to make the $$ when the market turns more favorable. But right now, unfortunately, the market isn't favorable... You make a good point about some companies: LSI ORCL JDSU, CSCO EMC... great management, super revenue growth, excellent earnings prospects.... Those characteristics make them wonderful companies...and I suspect their successes have quite a bit of room to run yet. It may not make their stocks wonderful buys, however. Even LSI, which is not nearly as highly valued as CSCO or JDSU... is selling for over 50 times this years earnings. A typical market PE for a typical stock is probably around 15. "Hot" stocks used to get 50. At the peak of the '72 market, some of the "Nifty 50" had PE's near 100 (and lost 80-90 percent of their value, subsequently). Now we commonly have stocks with PE's over 100. So we're vulnerable. So who's "right"? We only know that in the rear view mirror. Biggs and Hayes have been "right" on over-valuations for many years -- and dead wrong on the market. I've already started nibbling again, just in case we have a double bottom and a recovery here (which I do not yet expect). But the answer, I'm afraid will really be know months ahead... It might even be the best policy to just sit and let the recovery get seriously underway. One thing I know is, I'm not near smart enough to try to recoup my losses in this market. I get much smarter, though, when the bull is running again <G> tso