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Strategies & Market Trends : Technical analysis for shorts & longs -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Johnny Canuck who wrote (26314)	4/24/2000 4:12:00 PM
From: Johnny Canuck	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 71070

Commentary contains finer points of I-watch system AVNX 24-Apr-00 14:22:42 While most tech stocks are slumping lower, Avonex has rocketed $20 7/16, or 36%, to trade at $75 1/2, overcoming an earlier weaker start. Notably, the stock is the top point gainer on the NASDAQ Composite. Interestingly, AVNX hit a 52-week low of $47 3/8 just last Monday, despite upbeat analyst reports following the firm?s FY00 3Q results. Today, reports have suggested that the firm was highlighted in the ?Gilder Technology Report,? which sent retail investors clamoring for shares of AVNX. Volume began to pick up today around 10:00 as buyers moved in, sending the issue soaring into positive territory. Roughly 3.5 million shares have crossed, well ahead of the 10-day average daily volume of 520k shares. More than 95% of the trades are related to trades for less than 10k shares, as investors seek to preserve AVNX?s liquidity. I-Watch?s post-trade charts are nearly bare, further indicating the lack of institutional interest? which gives further evidence that retail investors make up the bulk of today?s activity. The I-Watch post-trade volume pie chart shows that retail brokers have reported a solid 30% of total volume, while institutional brokers have booked slightly more than half of total volume. However, part of the institutional volume is related to market making and professional day trading. Given that strong presence of retail and short-term traders, the stock's trading pattern will likely remain very volatile. ********************************* MSFT 24-Apr-00 10:39:58 Microsoft Corp is trading trading down $11 3/4 at $67 3/16, recovering a bit after hitting a new 52-week los of $65 1/4. First, on April 20, MSFT stated FY00 3Q earnings of $0.43, 2 cents above the First Call consensus estimate. However, revenues fell shy of expectations and management offered conservative expectations for full-year FY2001 earnings. While analysts? have come to expect cautious guidance from Mr. Softee, many were taken aback by the ?negative? comments. Further hurting the stock, both the Wall Street Journal and the Washington Post reported that government officials favor a divestiture plan in the company's anti-trust case, separating MSFT?s Office software business. Within the first hour of trading, over 57 million shares were exchanged, making the stock the most heavily traded issue on the NASDAQ. The 10-day average daily volume is just 45 million shares. This morning, Goldman Sachs removed the company from its recommended list, and SG Cowen cut its rating to ?Buy? from ?Strong Buy.? With all of the ?negativity,? why is I-Watch showing only super buy messages? For a couple of reasons. First, much of the buy messages are in response to MSFT?s 15+% decline. MSFT?s ?cheap? price has lured investors with a long-term investment horizon to the table. While these bottom fishers will not reverse the stock?s downward slide, the demand has helped tapered the sell-off. Secondly, brokers that use Thomson?s communication system do not benefit by posting sell messages? everyone (seemingly) is looking to sell shares of MSFT. However, by posting super buys, brokers provide the sellers with clients interested in taking in stock. Institutional investors are leading today?s sell-off, with block trades related to an unusually high 50% of today?s activity. The I-Watch post-trade chart reveals the institutional brokers have claimed roughly 70% of today?s activity.