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Technology Stocks : Dell Technologies Inc. -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Gabriel008 who wrote (156541)	4/24/2000 4:49:00 PM
From: JRI	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 176387

Angel...given your clarification about your margin assumptions...I gotta believe that Dell has .01/.02 in investment income as cushion (a la Intel/Microsoft...we'll see this going forward each quarter, IMO)...It would be absolutely disasterous for Dell to miss this quarter (I can't believe management would have slipped up again, so badly, so soon)...AND Dell's management has made at least a couple statements this month generally saying "all's OK"...something we didn't see in Q4 '00, or Q4 '99...quarter's of the famous "misses" (EPS, revenue respectively)..so, to come out and say they are missing....would be a huge credibility hit (and deserved, IMO).. Even so, I think Dell has to make AT LEAST .16 (and really .17) from core ops (regardless of investment income)...to maintain any sort of momentum (in the stock)...AND they better say ALL the right things in the CC too....With .16 core, I think Dell will hang around .50 (and rightly so) for a while... Next quarter, the comparison gets tougher....Last year Q2 was outstanding....19 cents (remember)....a great quarter...hard y-o-y comparison (although the next Q3/Q4 should be easy/beautiful to compare)... Right now, the market is giving Dell the benefit of the doubt on its "internet strategy"....Meanwhile, Dell needs to get the PC growth house back in order, and quick...(especially Europe)..

To: Gabriel008 who wrote (156541)	4/24/2000 5:28:00 PM
From: D. Swiss	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 176387

Gabriel, this year is a little different in that we didn't have y2k last year and the win2k intro. BTW, I thought the reference management made was to early last year on the margins not Q3. :o) Drew

To: Gabriel008 who wrote (156541)	4/24/2000 7:24:00 PM
From: Mike Van Winkle	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 176387

Gabriel re: The January vs April effect could have an impact but historically I've generally found IDC to be very close to DELL's real numbers despite the 1 month difference. All of us are in your debt for sharing the results of your Dell financial model and I wanted to thank you. Regarding the IDC numbers, I had always thought that the units sold were strictly from the calendar quarters and were not adjusted to a company's reporting time frame. Also, just from a logical point of view of comparison of company growths it would not make sense for IDC to time skew the data for Dell and HP. Further, from a practical point of view, the future numbers are not available. Dell had expected a hockey stick January in Y2K relief and did not get it as all of us are painfully aware of (bears excepted), so Dell could not have given IDC projected numbers last quarter. I will stick to the .16 consensus, from my own point of view. Europe will continue to be one of the biggest growth issues for Dell, but I think that they finally have the right top team in place. On the other hand, that means it won't be fixed over night. I think that M. Dell's (along with myself) over optimistic past is behind us and even the analysts are on board with Dell's 1Q2001 and year outlook. As usual, the IDC numbers leave me with nothing but more questions, but this time I am not budging from the consensus until print hits paper. Best and highest regards, Mike