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To: sea_biscuit who wrote (21999)	4/25/2000 10:22:00 PM
From: Duane L. Olson	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 25814

You know, Dipy, I have to agree with you ... If we ever get conditions similar to those in '73/74, there is going to be one heck of a price to pay in some of the really high flyers. Back in '73 one of the Forbes writers said that it is fine to discount future earnings back to the present by assigning a higher PE... but some of these stocks (Nifty Fifty) are discounting earnings into the hereafter. In eary '74 that same writer, when queried as to when "this bear market will end" replied that it would end shortly after the "Nifty Fifty" are taken out and shot. When AVON, XRX, Polaroid, International Fragrences, etc, finally keeled over and died, we finally got a bottom in that market (Oct, '74). From that point, it has been a license to mint money in the market (well, we did double bottom in Dec, but there never was a lower point than Oct)... A few differences this time: Many of the high flying "Dot.ORG" internets (never intended to be profitable) have had their wings clipped, but good. Many will be out of business in 9 months, imho. And a good correction like the current one reminds folks that even good companies can have overpriced stocks... But also, we aren't faced with the high oil prices, the massive interest rates, and Nixon's stupid attempts at price controls. So we will have to find another reason to bring this bull market to an end. And really, Dipy, I don't see that anytime in the next couple of years... And when NO ONE sees it, the bear will come.... Keep us straight! <G> tso