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Strategies & Market Trends : MDA - Market Direction Analysis -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Benkea who wrote (47938)	4/24/2000 9:15:00 PM
From: SBerglowe	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 99985

I think your point is a good one. I am having a difficult time reconciling poor market breadth with the "we rally to new highs scenario" Could you or someone post an A/D line or histogram. thanks

To: Benkea who wrote (47938)	4/24/2000 9:30:00 PM
From: AllansAlias	Respond to of 99985

In terms of disclosure, I will admit that I am just about as full of puts as I can afford given my personal risk/reward rules. Today was a very interesting one that, for me, illustrates again the complacency in this market. We had the biggest gap -down open in history. The move into the gap after the open was very weak, and we drifted steadily down. We were so low at 45 minutes before the close, that we were looking at a close-to-close day that would have been in the top 5 worse days. Yes, the kick at the end was something and gave us a bullish candle in isolation, but modulo the program buying and short-covering and I do not see it as displaying much strength. We may have a couple of up days, but I think this was another significant damaging day. (The strength in the DOW did surprise me though.) People will blame MSFT. This is simply too easy. The selling was very widespread and shows just how susceptible this technology market is to bad news. Traders will probably think the MSFT news is an isolated case. If history is rhyming here, there will be other bad news in the coming days. What am I looking for to show me that I am wrong? 1) That any rally in the coming few days takes out the short-term high of Apr 19. A smaller rally/shoulder is bearish. 2) That it takes out the overhead downtrend line going from late March top through Apr 10. Cheers. --Allan