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Strategies & Market Trends : Rande Is . . . HOME -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Kaliico who wrote (24565)	4/25/2000 1:04:00 AM
From: Rande Is	Read Replies (4) \| Respond to of 57584

. . . . . . . . Some unrelated thoughts. . . . . . We came close enough to the COMPX low to call it a re-test. . .and the way the selling volume dried up, it sure did have the look of a bottom. Tomorrow's buy vs. sell volume will tell the story. If we see too much selling into a morning rally. . . well. . . then we could still have further to fall. I think many could use a rally in techs. . .but the markets are rarely generous these days. . . you must earn every cent you gain. . . EVEN in the midst of the greatest bull market in history. . . the tremendous volatility and obvious manipulation has forced traders to change strategies in the middle of the run. . .just to stay ahead. Will there be another Unibomber tomorrow? The way the Wall Street Journal and Washington Post and a few others played Microsoft would have made any conductor smile. . . right, Baton? Very well orchestrated. What better way to slam the markets than to take a whack at the one stock most everyone owns? Like I said this morning. . . they lost 60 billion before the bell. . .but what was the total sympathy loss on the Nasdaq within the first minute of trading? 500 billion? ---------------- As for that list of low price examples on tech stocks. . .it was strictly designed to give a sample of the sort of losses I expect this summer. It is NOT a list of the stocks I am hoping to buy at the lows. In fact, there are a few there that I don't think will bounce much at all. When the market takes a dump. . .I buy the VERY BEST companies I can find. . . the chances are better that they will return. . .and will return stronger than others. ------------------------------ CMGI, ICGE, VERT, and others seem to be in a similar rut as the B2Bs. I don't see them showing up as the first to be bought back on bounces. Remember, I watch lists of the most volatile stocks these days. . . and those that are moving up or down the fastest. . .and those names have been selling off, but not bouncing very quickly. . . otherwise, I'd be playing them on the bounce, too. . . and I am not. ------------------------------ MSFT was a great buy today. If it goes lower, it will obviously be a better buy. . . . . .it is possible that the media will drive it down further. And we could see the 40's. . .but as strong as the company is [especially with wireless being so important]. . .I feel better grabbing it on the dips. . . Reason. . .if they don't split the company. . they will do fine. . . if they DO split the company. . . I believe they will do even better. A single share of MSFT. . .could be split into one share of up to 4 different companies. . . each of which could then merge, make acquisitions, grow the company and grow the earnings over time. Those that held A.T. & T. through the divestiture are VERY VERY happy with their new holdings of a selection [about 17 different stocks now?] of the finest telecom stocks in the biz. Look at it another way. . . MSFT is so enormous now. . .that the idea of the stock running to 200 and seeing stock splits over and over is out of the question. . .it has for the most part max'd out the major part of its growth. . . now the company is simply about earnings. However, upon a split of the company. . . we could easily be holding several growth companies. . . . Likewise. . . I envision Bill Gates wealth to be maintained should the DOJ allow MSFT to remain as is. . . however, I see him doubling his wealth within 4 years of the official divestiture of MSFT. This is due to the higher multiples investors would give to several smaller tech stocks yet to reach their potential. Sometimes the rich can't help but get richer. . . Also, I don't believe MSFT will appeal as many say. . .they know they need to get back to business . . .as fast as technology advances. . a company like MSFT can't afford to get tied up for years in court battles. . .and will soon come to their senses and settle. . . and I believe they are rapidly becoming more willing to take whatever medicine is handed down. ----------------------- I am holding GLW for earnings. . . the only earnings play I've made since AMD. . .it was a pleasure buying the dips today. Looking forward to good news on a strong day. ----------------------- Though I believe we will see another little surge in tech stocks here, I still maintain that we sell off for most of the summer. Mark makes a strong point about each market event coming sooner and sooner. . .we've all watched this happen over the past year. So perhaps rather than waiting until November to rally, we will start in October. . . when many are expecting further drops. As for whether the individual investors could stage their own summer rally without the help of the big money. I honestly doubt it. [then again, I've never been a believer in summer earnings rallies] And should the individual investors actually stage a sustained broadbased rally, I would need to change some of the basic dynamics I use to read the markets. The Individual Investors are getting stronger. . . but I believe we lost more soldiers in this past drop than anyone could tally. In my estimate, perhaps as much as one-third of active investor/traders sustained damaging losses that may take the rest of the year to recover. This group is currently shell shocked and will no doubt be gunshy next time around. So I don't think we will see a SUSTAINED tech rally happen until well after Labor day.. . .the earliest scenario I could imagine would be the final week of September leading into the October earnings weeks. . . with an election a month away and no threat of interest rate hikes. . . it sounds feasible. Could there be a relief rally after the FOMC in May? Sure, why not? But again, I don't see that one as having legs. A serious rally needs volume. . .and we already have every indication that volume is far lower this week than it was last. . . indicating to me that the biggest players have mostly cashed out. . . for their 6 month retreat in Tuscany. . . or Monte Carlo. . .or the Caribbean. . . --------------------------- Hope I covered many of the topics asked about. . . sorry I could not answer each question individually. -------------------------- OT> As the market slows. . .I get cracking on the website, etc. . . . I'm still not feeling 100%. . .mistakenly, I've always figured if I refuse illness it will just go away. . . that sort of worked during the first 40 years. Thank God, I've never even stayed overnight in a hospital. . . or rode in an ambulance. . . . But something tells me that in the final 40, I need to pay more attention to those little warning signs. . . and take care of things as they arise. [any insurance agents in the group?] Funny thing is: that I still think as though I am 19. I see the world as a 19 year old. . .like it is my oyster. . . I can still play football like nobody's business. . .can't I? I can still work through the night 4 or 5 times in a single week. . . I just don't choose to. . .doncha think? I still love the same things I did then. . . I've just expanded my horizons. . .that's all. . . . isn't it? I mean. . .Hey! I never said I wanted to grow up! <g> Best wishes all, Rande Is