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Technology Stocks : The New Qualcomm - a S&P500 company -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Keith Feral who wrote (9194)	4/25/2000 7:53:00 AM
From: Ron M	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 13582

Keith et al: From the Telecomm Analyst FWIW More FUD??? thetelecommanalyst.com April 25, 2000 2. The Sell Report Issue #4 Is Qualcomm Coming Back to Earth? By Aram Fuchs Yahoo! Message Board Posting: "Though I walk in the valley of the death, I use QCOM chips to call God and get the devil off my back." Username: syntrivity Fertilemind.net believes QUALCOMM (QCOM) is a quintessential "big idea, big blow up" stock that will hurt individual investors in the years to come. Enticed by the premise that wireless phones are rapidly becoming mainstream in the U.S., as well as in such exotic locales as China, naive individual investors bought QUALCOMM simply because it was one of the bigger players in the market. But, these investors have not used the fundamental tools that most financial analysts use to value stocks. In this incredibly optimistic market, where faith and belief seem more important than logic and analysis, the stock of QUALCOMM skyrocketed to $200 from $6. QUALCOMM's major technology, CDMA (code division multiple access), has been around for 10 years. So, why did the stock suddenly take off in 1999? We think investors should look at the state of the 1999 market more than any specific corporate event. Yes, the company announced the resolution of a long-standing lawsuit with rival ERICSSON (ERICY) that allowed the two companies to cross-license certain technologies. And, yes, QUALCOMM announced a very interesting agreement to license CDMA technology to China Unicom, a large Chinese telecommunications provider. But, at one point in the first quarter of 2000, QUALCOMM traded at over 200 times earnings, despite the fact that earnings were only growing 35% a year. Investors have totally ignored the difficulty most American companies have trying to making money in China's notoriously byzantine economy. They have ignored the company's hints to analysts that demand was weak and that earnings estimates should be lowered. Finally, investors have ignored the fact that the move to cheaper cell phones will hurt QUALCOMM, which collects fees from cell-phone manufacturers based on a percentage of the total cost of the phone. In the Internet stock mania of 1999 individual investors were willing to open and swallow any stock in a sexy industry like wireless telecommunications. They were gulled into believing that good companies should be bought regardless of the price. Now, with the stock rallying after the company reported earnings that were slightly above Wall Street forecasts, individual investors blindly assume that QUALCOMM's drop was just a correction that has run its course. We say, "No way." This stock is only seeing a temporary reprieve. As the individual investors who bid up stocks like QUALCOMM are weeded out of the market, QUALCOMM will trade down to more rational levels, say, 40 to 50 times earnings. Don't be weeded out. Learn the lessons of fundamental analysis. Even when analyzing a sexy business like wireless telecommunications, an individual investor must remain objective. The consequences of doing anything else can be detrimental to your portfolio's health.

To: Keith Feral who wrote (9194)	4/25/2000 3:52:00 PM
From: w molloy	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 13582

Keith wrote : Maurice: QCOM already has the technology and licensing for DS ASICS. No Keith - they don't. Its is quite a leap from "announcing a roadmap", and to sampling chips. You should read the press release more carefully. e.g. Para 1 " announced further development plans" Para 2 " We intend to leverage" Para 3 "chipset and system software solutions are currently being developed" and "Detailed specifications and schedules will be announced later,