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Strategies & Market Trends : Technical analysis for shorts & longs -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?


To: tech fool who wrote (26332)4/25/2000 2:26:00 PM
From: Johnny Canuck  Respond to of 71105
 
Hi tech,

>>P&F indicators let me down this time, I feel like I've
>>been hit by a truck.

I am pretty sure most technical indicators have not been working the last few weeks. Even the T's that I follow were only indicating that we were entering a trading range. Well, we established a pretty wide range. <g> I think the severity and the speed of the drop surprised everyone. In reality, this drop is good if we can form a decent base. If we do, we should have a shot at a new high on the COMPX later in the year.

>>Looking like signs of a bottom forming, but how long will >>it take?

Given the accelerate pace that the market trades at it might not be long. Once the economic numbers are out of the way, the scenario may play out like this:

1) The trend for the early part of the earnings period was to sell the news no matter how good. The second half will be to buy the good earnings as guidance so far indicates that next quarter's earnings will still be good.

2) New money enters the market in May as the market firms since everyone is done paying taxes and now has money to put into the market.

3) The next Fed meeting is May 26? , so the market knows it has a few weeks of stability so once the economic numbers are out of the way in the early part of May, the market rallies on the pretext of good earnings for next quarter, analyst upgrades etc ... .

4) The market pull back just before the Fed in anticipation of a rate increase.