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To: Voltaire who wrote (16232)4/25/2000 8:55:00 AM
From: Jenne  Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 35685
 
wrong...

Taking a Sentimental Journey
By Helene Meisler
Special to TheStreet.com
4/25/00 8:25 AM ET


April 25, 2000
As I watch one market player after another give interviews about the decline of the Nasdaq Composite Index on Monday, I'm amazed how one-sided the view is: We have seen the low and Monday was a successful test. In my opinion, Monday was not a true, successful test of the April 17 low. A true, successful test would've taken the Nasdaq down to a new intraday (or closing) low while the underlying statistics held. Frankly, sentiment is in the wrong place for this to be a great low.

There were some signs of holding into yesterday's low. But this is short-term stuff; sentiment is the major ingredient missing from this "real bottom." Almost every major bottom has been accompanied by a great deal of bearishness. For that reason, I believe this is all part of the process of trying to find a bottom. Because we need a series of rallies and declines to make up bases, it appears we're about to have an upward bias for the remainder of the week.


The first sign of a short-term low comes from the oscillator. It is oversold, and yesterday's decline, even at its worst, never came close to the oversold reading we saw on April 17. So we've got a higher low, or a less oversold reading, which creates a positive divergence. Sure, it would've been better if we had broken those lows of 10 days ago, but we didn't. But now we must look forward, and since the oscillator is a 10-day moving average, we can see the numbers we are "dropping." Here's what that string looks like through the end of the week:

-1802
-1776
-2332
-3434
For this reason, even declines on the Nasdaq should show very little downside momentum for the remainder of the week, and any rallies should show upside momentum



To: Voltaire who wrote (16232)4/25/2000 10:20:00 AM
From: Jim Willie CB  Respond to of 35685
 
May 22nd vote in USCongress House of Representatives on China trade relations
Senate vote on June 5th is called virtually certain

Michigan's Levin leads the large block of undecided voters barraged by lobbyists estimated to be 1/3 of the House
Big Business wants permanent normal trade relations (PNTR) to promote economic growth
Large Internet companies lead the coalition in support of PNTR
Labor Activists deplore Chinese govt exploitation of workers, environment destruction, and denial in citizen religious freedom

The biggest recent indication of likely PNTR passage is kneejerk House Minority Leader Gephardt
He opposes PNTR, and announced opposition back home in Missouri, not in WashDC
He declared his intention not to pressure other democrats to vote no
He does not want to tear apart his party, thus risking his chances at House Majority Leader
So while he placates labor unions, he avoids confrontation with Clinton and other PNTR supporters
Meanwhile individual House members widely refuse to discuss the issue in public

Undecided voters are building a worthless conciliation mechanism for periodically reviewing Chinese human rights record (sure, right)
This mechanism is called a "fig leaf" providing political cover for democrats voting yes

US Trade Rep Barshefsy says we have only the obligation to provide China under WTO the permanent normal trade relations status
In return China opens its markets much wider to foreign goods, and provide special import protection and enforcement rights
Former Bush Security chief Scowcroft believes PNTR goes far beyond American business and political interests
PNTR will speed up the movement toward privatization of state-owned Chinese industries

Chinese dissident Wu lobbies against, arm-in-arm with US Labor
He believes the major beneficiary to PNTR would be the Chinese Communist Party
Which will grow richer, upgrade its instruments of authority for the police and military
Many congressmen resist the tie between passage and human rights policy

in conclusion, QCOM has become entangled in Chinese-American politics... WTO acceptance seems assured... QCOM is likely to benefit from this acceptance which will be followed by positive comments by Chinese politicians... this intangible is capable of supporting QCOM share price, but on a limited basis

/ Jim Willie