Silicon Investor (SI) -- The First Internet Community

STOCKTALK

We've detected that you're using an ad content blocking browser plug-in or feature. Ads provide a critical source of revenue to the continued operation of Silicon Investor. We ask that you disable ad blocking while on Silicon Investor in the best interests of our community. If you are not using an ad blocker but are still receiving this message, make sure your browser's tracking protection is set to the 'standard' level.

Politics : Formerly About Applied Materials -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Gottfried who wrote (34981)	4/25/2000 2:16:00 PM
From: Dr. Mitchell R. White	Respond to of 70976

Well, the numbers don't exactly line up, do they. Hmmmm.... I suspect there's a bit of "apples and oranges" counting going on between what SEMI reports and what SemiBizNews showed. At least I hope it's that simple! Combined with other error bars or ranges on the numbers, and it could be made to look a bit more rational. Frankly, there's no way we'll see a ramp up to $3+ billion from $1.7 billion a quarter or so, even moving averages can't move that fast! I do think we'll see growth in the 40% range, however, with AMAT at maybe 45-50%. They're gonna get hammered by two facts: They can't bring more manufacturing space on line quickly (they're about maxed out now, and where you gonna find a usable tilt-up ready to go that isn't already being used by somebody else in business?), and they need to bring 300 mm up from pilot lines too. It's easy to grow by 40-50% output/throughput when you have unused space and other idle or underutilized resources. AMAT no longer has that luxury, and with a sizable portion of their manufaturing already using Lean Manufacturing principles, it's not easy to squeeze more through the pipe. There are some areas that are not yet on 24/7 work schedules, but the critical functions, those that define throughput, mostly are. Or are getting there as quickly as they can get the staff for that! I'm comfortable that we're in for a great 2001, and less comfortable, but still positive, about 2002 (the lease on my crystal ball is up before then). I think it'll take a major macroeconomic event, likely global, to affect this. But 2003, that's a horse of an entirely different hue.... Mitch

To: Gottfried who wrote (34981)	4/25/2000 3:19:00 PM
From: FJB	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 70976

Gottfried, Don't forget the SEMI Book-to-Bill numbers are only for "North American-based manufacturers of semiconductor equipment" and the $36 Billion figure represents the worldwide market, so the SEMI numbers do not represent shipments for the 2nd, 3rd, 4th, 7th, 9th, and 10th largest suppliers of equipment, not to mention many smaller non-North American companies. 1999 1998 Supplier 1999 revenues % change from 1998 1 1 Applied Materials $5.457 billion 51.5% 2 2 Tokyo Electron Ltd. $2.634 billion 39% 3 3 Nikon $1.430 billion 10.7% 4 7 ASM Lithography $1.276 billion 47% 5 4 Teradyne $1.210 billion 26% 6 5 KLA-Tencor $1.049 billion 19% 7 6 Advantest $955 million 5.1% 8 8 Lam Research $894 million 19% 9 9 Canon $751 million -2% 10 10 Hitachi $743 million 25% Bob