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To: Steve Robinett who wrote (51187)4/25/2000 5:49:00 PM
From: Skeeter Bug  Respond to of 53903
 
yes, you are missing the crayons and wearing a thinking cap. i said about 6 months ago mu would earn less this q compared to last q. my guess is $0.45 is VERY generous. factor in the new shares and it should drop a couple pennies. my guess is $.15.

however, be warned, mu investors can't count and they sure can't think critically. they may run this up ahead of the obviously crappy earnings. they've done it before.

mu sucks. the business sucks. free cash flow doesn't exist. mu has borrowed BILLIONS during the best of all worlds. wait until the bad times hit -ng-

i'm very close to entering the put game again, so buy your calls while you can! ;-)



To: Steve Robinett who wrote (51187)4/26/2000 1:30:00 AM
From: DJBEINO  Respond to of 53903
 
[World DRAM Price] Spot Prices for 128Mb DRAMs Decline for PCs, Rise for Non-PC Use
April 26, 2000 (TOKYO) -- The spot prices for 128Mb DRAM chips dropped in three regions, but not all spot prices for DRAM chips have fallen.



Spot prices for DRAM chips, such as 16Mb and 64Mb EDO DRAM chips, which are used for devices other than personal computers, have been on the rise.

According to a worldwide DRAM price survey conducted by ICIS-LOR, which has footholds in London, Houston and Singapore, the rolling average prices of 128Mb DRAMs (PC133, 16M x 8) for large-lot users for the 30 days between March 9 and April 7 was US$14.20 in North America, US$12.62 in Europe and US$13.50 in Asia.

Compared to the previous week (30-day rolling average price up to March 31), they fell by 4.95 percent in Europe, and those in North America and Asia remained unchanged.

As for prices of memory modules, the spot prices for 128MB dual inline memory modules (DIMMs, PC133) rose by 0.96 percent to US$89.13 in North America, and fell by 1.84 percent to US$95.91 in Europe and were down by 1.04 percent to US$90.48 in Asia.

The excessive production of DRAM chips for personal computers by major DRAM chip makers resulted in an oversupply, leading to the falling prices for DRAM chips, including those for 128Mb DRAM chips, for personal computers.

Japanese makers, which supply DRAM chips mainly for markets other than the personal computers, lack production capacity, leading to a rise in prices for DRAM chips for devices other than personal computers.

nikkeibp.asiabiztech.com



To: Steve Robinett who wrote (51187)4/26/2000 2:18:00 AM
From: Jeff Leader  Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 53903
 
Steve - the analysts are continuing to play the same game they have for at least a year - the 'prosperity is just around the corner' game. It goes as follows:

1) make outrageous profit projections for 3-6 months out, or next year
2) raise your ratings and price targets based on these looney estimates
3) As the quarter ends, silently lower your earnings estimates for the quarter (this Q's estimate has fallen from .72 to .63 in just the past few days - it was .98 3 months ago)
4) if MU fails to meet even the lowered estimates, wave your hands, tell the press that no one can predict MU's profits, and refocus the conversation on the prosperity you see 3-6 months out - how there's been an underinvestment in capacity, etc.
5) collect investment banking fees, trading profits, bonuses, etc.

Were it not for a confluence of one-time events (the Taiwan earthquake, combined with pre-Y2K hoarding) I think this game would be over. But for now, the bulls can keep looking back at Q1 and dreaming about how much MU may earn - someday...