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Technology Stocks : The New Qualcomm - a S&P500 company -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Keith Feral who wrote (9253)	4/25/2000 4:09:00 PM
From: w molloy	Respond to of 13582

Keith - I appreciate your constructive response. <eom>

To: Keith Feral who wrote (9253)	4/25/2000 4:23:00 PM
From: William Hunt	Respond to of 13582

Thread ---Gilders April comments borrowed from the Yahoo thread : April 2000 Gilder Tech Report - QCOM by: lovlee_1999 4/25/00 3:17 pm Msg: 179351 of 179386 Not 1999, 4/2000 guys. Sorry about the screw-up last time, but I did just take it from another poster's post so don't kill the messenger please. ha At any rate, wanted to make the blunder up. Gilder is still very very bullish on QCOM. I actually quit being a cheapskate and paid the $295 subscription fee. Here is his QCOM/CDMA commentary which is really nice: "...This way to Egress - If AT&T (T) wireless IPO (Irredemmably Pathetic Offering) succeeds on the scale T is predicting it will be an even more amazingly Barnumesque feat than Craig McCaw's unloading it on T the first time. Inferior by far even to GSM, the European TDMA standard, T's American TDMA network has no future at all. Literally, incapable of carrying bursty Internet data at any reasonably speed, TDMA will likely never evolve into a 3G standard. Concurrently US TDMA carriers can offer data only on a separate cellular digital packet data (CDPD) network operating at a humble 19.2 Kbps. GSM networks now poking along at only 9.2 Khps for data have a relatively easy and inexpensive upgrade to a "Generation 2.5" system known as GPRS, which will eventually offer data at up to 57.6 Kbps. That's paltry compared to QCOM's G2.5 entry, the CDMA 2000 system offering nearly triples the data rate and unlike GPRS, allowing voice and data to use the same channels. Far from leeching voice to support data, CDMA2000 actually doubles the voice capacity of existing CDMA networks. T however does not even have GPRS to fall back on since that is a GSM-only upgrade. For robust data, T must wait - possibly forever - for EDGE slated to trail CDMA2000 by at least a year, and featuring a data rate of only 38.4 Kbps, one sixth QCOM's coming HDR system. Worse yet, EDGE is not an extension of American TDMA but a separate network overlay requiring its own dedicated spectrum. Already some 3 times less spectrally efficient than CDMA for voice, the T network is thus about to be impaled on the cruelest dilemma facing wireless carriers today. Wireless customers increasingly will expect robust data capacity. But at a time when most wireless networks can sell all the voice minutes they can supply, dedicating channels to data is a painful and costly exercise. CDMA2000 turns that dilemma into an opportunity as early as the end of this year, offering data while doubling voice capacity without hogging dedicated spectrum. HDR will require a dedicated channel. But at 2.4 Mpbs, six times as fast as EDGE, the trade off is easier to justify. If EDGE ever emerges from vapor (I like this - my own emphasis) T's only robust data option will require it to permanently trim voice capacity from an already inefficient system, while PCS and BEL/VOD double voice capacity and add data for one-third the investment. The data dilemma dooms American TDMA networks. The BEL/VOD partnership (inexplicably renamed Verizon) abruptly thrusts T into a distant second place in wireless market share. T's only remaining advantages are cash, bulk, and an increasingly compromised brand. In thrall to a bankrupt technology, all three will waste away. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- BEST WISHES BILL