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Gold/Mining/Energy : Strictly: Drilling and oil-field services -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?


To: The Ox who wrote (65258)4/25/2000 11:19:00 PM
From: jim_p  Respond to of 95453
 
Sorry Michael, I missed the luncheon today. I'll ask around and see if there was anything of interest said at the SFS presentation. I did buy 6,000 shares of SFS stock after seeing the earnings release today.

The only mid to large cap (excluding mini-majors) E&P stocks I would buy at this stage in the game would be XTO and SFS. I would hold OEI, APA and NBL at these prices, and the rest I would exchange for OSX stocks like PGO, HOFF, KEG, VRC, NR, FLC, MDR, TBDI and VTS. If you don't like the volatility of the OSX stocks, I would sell stocks like VPI, APC, BR, LD and SFY for stocks like OXY and UCL.

My target prices for selling OEI, NBL and APA are:

OEI 15-18.00
APA 55-60.00
NBL 40-45.00

I still believe I can at least double my returns in the next 8-12 months with very little risk. The story over the next 8-12 months will be NG. The story in 2001 will be both oil and gas.

We are still in the early stage of one of the best fundamental recoveries in the oil patch in the last 30-40 years, and potentially one of the longest.

E&P stocks were a gift at 2.5 times current year cash flow, most have recovered to around 4 times cash flow. A normal range in a lousy market is 4-6 times cash flow, and you will see 6-8 times cash flow towards the end of the cycle.

Good luck to all, I'm staying in the patch.

Jim