A wireless way of life
April 25, 2000
by John Edwards
upside.com
It could be the biggest thing to help lazy people since the invention of the remote control. The members of the Bluetooth Special Interest Group (SIG) have a loftier goal: They simply want to reshape everyday life. Whether they can deliver on this promise remains to be seen.
Bluetooth, named after a medieval Danish king (see sidebar, "The Bluetooth saga"), is a specification for wireless communication between notebook PCs, handheld computers, mobile phones and an endless array of other gadgets. Its promise is absolute: no cables to trip over, no plugs to jam or break.
The technology is based on the proposition that while it's becoming increasingly easy to fling information from one side of the world to the other, moving data just a few feet is a far more troublesome matter.
Ultra-connectivity
Through-the-air connectivity between computers and peripherals is nothing new. Infrared links, like the type based on the popular IrDA standard, already allow users to transfer information between compatible devices simply by pointing and beaming. Wireless LANs have also been available for many years.
Nevertheless, Bluetooth's supporters feel their radio-based technology works even better, since it supports a wide coverage area and allows devices to communicate with each other without direct user intervention. This is accomplished through an "auto-initiate" feature that allows devices to send and receive data without separate steps requiring its user's permission or knowledge.
"With Bluetooth, a device can communicate anytime, anywhere, even through solid objects," says Joyce Putscher, director of converging markets and technologies research for Cahners In-Stat Group, a technology research firm.
Big SIG
Ericsson, (ERICY) IBM (IBM), Intel (INTC), Nokia (NOK), and Toshiba formed the Bluetooth SIG, the specification's guiding body, in 1994. After a slow start, membership grew quickly during 1999 -- climbing from about 200 members at the year's start to more than 1,400 by early 2000. The organization's ranks now include just about every major computer and telecommunications company, plus a growing array of startups.
"The Bluetooth organization reached critical mass a few months ago, and now encompasses just about everybody who's interested in mobile communications, as well as many other parties," says Brian Canny, an analyst at Parks Associates, a research company that studies the Bluetooth market.
After debuting at various computer, consumer electronics and telecommunications industry trade shows over the past several months, the first Bluetooth products are set to begin arriving on the market this spring and summer. "Shipments will trickle out during 2000, but expect volumes to take off in the second quarter of 2001," says Vince Holton, publisher of Incisor, a Bluetooth newsletter.
Holton, like many other analysts, believes there's a huge potential market for Bluetooth technology. Cahners In-Stat forecasts more than 670 million Bluetooth-enabled devices by 2005. By that same year, sales will pass $2 billion, according to Allied Business Intelligence.
A door, not a definitive solution
Despite vast technological and market potential, Bluetooth's future is not all blue skies. The technology faces significant challenges in such key areas as marketing, operability, security and alliance solidarity.
"A dose of realism is beginning to sweep across the Bluetooth landscape," says Canny. "Many people are beginning to realize that Bluetooth simply represents an opening door, not a definitive solution to the problem of mobile connectivity."
Potential obstacles are seen as little more than temporary distractions by the Bluetooth alliance's leaders, all of whom expect the specification to lead to big changes in the way people electronically communicate. Ron Sperano, IBM's program director of mobile market development, offers a simple forecast: "Bluetooth could be the Holy Grail of connectivity," he says. Others, however, are less optimistic.
Plonk and play
The Bluetooth specification is based on the IEEE 802.11 standard for wireless LANs. Operating in the 2.45GHz band the technology will, theoretically, be able to connect devices within a range of up to 100 feet at speeds of up to 2M bps. Bluetooth introduces the concept of "plonk and play," says Holton. "Plonk two devices down near each other and they interact."
Bluetooth utilizes spread spectrum technology that hops signals from one frequency to another at set intervals. The advantage to this approach is the generation of sturdy wireless links, particularly in electrically noisy environments. The frequency hopping, along with streaming data encryption, provides a basic security umbrella.
Another advantage to Bluetooth is its use of a universal frequency set, which eliminates the "different hardware in different countries" problem that has tormented mobile phone marketers.
Building the infrastructure
While Bluetooth products are just arriving on the market, consortium members have been laying the technology's groundwork for several years. A variety of companies, ranging from computer and telecom industry giants to startups, are busily building the hardware and software infrastructure that will pave the way for future Bluetooth products.
Motorola
(MOT), for instance, has ambitious Bluetooth plans.
Besides supplying the industry with hardware and software technologies, the company is touting the concept of a personal area network (PAN) that expands on Bluetooth's role as a cable replacement technology. Motorola's Service Discovery Protocol, which it contributed to the Bluetooth SIG, is designed to allow all the devices in a person's life to communicate and work together.
"We're viewing Bluetooth as a global networking technology with individual devices functioning as roaming nodes," says Joe Edgerton, Motorola's senior director of PANs.
Within a PAN, devices will work together and share each other's information and services. For example, a file called up on a mobile device could be wirelessly sent to a printer to produce a hard copy document. At a conference, electronic documents could be instantly distributed to every audience member with a Bluetooth-equipped notebook or handheld computer.
People could also wirelessly synchronize all of their mobile devices with home and office desktop computers. "PANs could even be created within vehicles -- cars, trains, and planes," says Edgerton, although he acknowledges that airborne PANs probably won't take flight for several more years.
In addition to device-to-device networking, Motorola's technology supports the use of wireless Internet gateways. This capability will enable users to access email, Web pages, and Internet/intranet files from remote locations.
"Tiny radios will be embedded in everything from mobile phones to clothing."
"Imagine being able to spontaneously network with airlines, hotels, and car rental agencies for automatic check-in, seating, room assignments, meal selection, purchases and electronic payment," says Edgerton.
Chips and things
Bluetooth technology is supplied to product developers in the form of a chipset or module. Intel's contribution to the field is the Ambler module, which includes silicon components, a tiny antenna and software drivers for Windows 98 and 2000.
"Bluetooth technology will add about $20 to $30 to the price tag of a handheld computer or other device," says Simon Ellis, manager of Intel's mobile communications marketing group.
The outlay for Bluetooth technology could drop to as little as $5 as shipment volumes increase and the technology is eventually squeezed into a single chip solution. "When we started, I told my engineers I wanted a complete short-range radio system on one chip for $5," says Nils Rydbeck, chief technology officer for Ericsson's mobile phone division. "I think we will meet this goal. Not this year, but in few years."
Although several vendors have started touting single-chip Bluetooth solutions, none have yet actually delivered on their promises. "Somebody will say, 'We have a single chip.' Well, a lot of it is single-chip radio, but not a single chip solution," says Cahners' Putscher.
"Technically, it's very close," he says. "But it's not the cigar yet because it excludes flash memory."
Silicon Wave, Cambridge Silicon Radio and NeoSilicon are among the firms that have created Bluetooth radio chips. "The marketing opportunities are enormous," says David Lyon, Silicon Wave's chairman and CEO. "We're targeting cell phone, PDA and PC manufacturers, as well as module and PC card suppliers."
Phil O'Donovan, Cambridge Silicon Radio's managing director, sees an even wider potential market. "By driving down costs, we will help expand the market so the tiny radios will be embedded in everything from mobile phones to domestic appliances, from clothing to toys."
Product plans
Major notebook and PDA makers, including Dell Computer (DELL), IBM and Toshiba, have already announced plans to incorporate Bluetooth technology into many of their systems during the next 18 months.
3COM (COMS), which makes the PDA market-leading PalmPilot system, expects to incorporate the technology into its handheld computers, and its hubs and switches, says Paul Fulton, vice president and general manager of 3Com's wireless connectivity division. "Bluetooth will bring new versatility to portable systems," he says.
Mobile phone vendors, such as Nokia, Ericsson, and Motorola, are also formulating their Bluetooth strategies. All of the field's major players are expected to release Bluetooth products during this year and next. The technology will help make mobile phones ubiquitous and easier to use, says Haroon Alvi, director of business development for Nokia's mobile phones unit.
"A person could use the same phone at home, while walking or in a car," Alvi says. "With wireless links to speakers and microphones, hands-free operation would be possible inside any vehicle without making a physical connection."
Alvi adds that Bluetooth will also allow cellular technology to be used in new and innovative ways. For example, mobile phone, Bluetooth, and computer monitoring technologies could be combined to create a system that automatically reports developing vehicle problems to a service center. The shop can then alert the vehicle's owner to the difficulty and suggest a cure.
"We've only begun to scratch Bluetooth's potential," says Alvi.
Bluetooth sits down
Although Bluetooth is primarily focused on mobile systems, the technology will also be incorporated into an array of stationary devices. Desktop computers and peripherals will need to be equipped with Bluetooth in order to provide file synchronization, printing and other services commanded by mobile devices. Desktop computer makers will eventually build Bluetooth support directly into their products.
In the meantime, PC cards and other add-on devices will offer upgrade solutions. Widcomm, for example, has developed BlueShare, a Bluetooth connectivity "dongle" that attaches to a Windows PC's serial or USB port.
"Non-mobile products are the forgotten Bluetooth market segment," says Hiep Pham, Widcomm's president and CEO. "This is an area with many, largely untapped, possibilities."
Down the road, all sorts of gadgets could receive the Bluetooth treatment. Bluetooth-equipped vending machines would allow thirsty, cash-strapped travelers to instantly purchase a soft drink or snack by charging the transaction against credit or debit card data securely stored on their mobile phone or PDA, eliminating the use of a plastic card that could fall into the wrong hands.
Similarly, a Bluetooth point-of-sale system would allow shoppers to buy-and-bag products without searching for a sales clerk. "'Bluetooth everywhere,' could very well be the Bluetooth SIG's motto," says Parks' Canny.
Building alliances
Alliances are playing a critical role in Bluetooth's rollout, mostly because the development of a successful Bluetooth product requires exact interoperability between hardware, software, and usability factors.
"It would be difficult to build an end-to-end solution at the right price," notes Silicon Wave's Lyon, "if any one company had to be an expert in the design, testing, and production of all the radio, digital, and software components that are implemented into the finished product."
The pressing need for alliances has seen Bluetooth consortium members pair off faster than singles at a Poconos weekend getaway. Over the past few months, scores of partnerships have been created between an array of Bluetooth SIG members. "It's been an amazing thing to watch," Canny says.
In the Bluetooth universe, one alliance tends to cascade into another. Example: Intel is working with Microsoft (MSFT) to integrate the drivers for its Ambler module into upcoming versions of Microsoft operating systems; Microsoft has formed an alliance with Ericsson for the joint development of Bluetooth software; Ericsson and Qualcomm (QCOMM) are working together to bring Bluetooth functionality to code division multiple access (CDMA) mobile phones.
Many alliances are established to develop products that can be sold directly to consumers. Fuji (FUJIY) and Nokia, for example, have joined together to develop a technology that will transmit still images between digital cameras and mobile devices. Digianswer, a Bluetooth technology developer, is working with TDK (TDK) on PC Card and USB adapters that will add Bluetooth capabilities to portable computers.
Partnering hastens the development process and is reassuring to investors, observes Canny. "Developing Bluetooth expertise internally takes time," he says. "Alliances help companies make sure they don't get left behind as the Bluetooth market rushes forward."
Stumbling blocks
Although SIG members tend to be glowingly optimistic about the technology's prospects, Bluetooth's future is hardly free of potential problems. A top concern is the technology's use of the popular 2.45 GHz band. This spectrum segment is home to several radio-based technologies -- including wireless network products -- that are potential interference sources.
"Adding Bluetooth to the mix simply complicates matters," says Cahners' Putscher.
Bluetooth devices are also capable of causing some interference themselves. "A Bluetooth device user walking into an office with a wireless LAN might cause some commotion," Putscher says.
Another potential pitfall is the maximum usable distance between Bluetooth devices. Although the Bluetooth specification calls for a top range of about 100 feet, many observers believe that practical communication for the first generation of Bluetooth devices will fall somewhere between 6 and 25 feet.
"The range will eventually become much greater as technologies are refined, but it looks like for the immediate future the ability to beam data across rooms will be limited to fairly small rooms," says Parks' Canny.
Security issues may also limit Bluetooth's potential. Financial institutions among others could view the technology's simple frequency-hopping and streaming data-encryption technologies as insufficient protection for the communication of sensitive information, such as credit card information.
While security-sensitive applications can be created with higher-level data encryption, that means attaching an extra layer of software complexity and incurring higher costs.
"A few well-publicized scares about intercepted data might get people wondering about Bluetooth's data integrity," says Putscher.
Herding cats
Then there's the sobering fact that many of the consortium's 1,400-plus members are knife-to-the-throat competitors who can send the delicate alliance tumbling for any number of reasons. A recent Frost & Sullivan report predicted that the SIG could disintegrate in chaos as various members start pursuing their own visions for short-range communications and begin adapting the standard to meet their own needs.
Other analysts agree. "Whenever you get so many competitors in a single room, trouble is likely to arise," says Canny. "Setting the direction of a consortium like Bluetooth, in which so many companies have their own agendas, is not unlike herding cats."
Some observers also worry that one or more of the many alliances between Bluetooth members could result in the emergence of ad hoc mini-SIGs that would send Bluetooth careening off into uncharted territory. "When you see companies like Intel and Microsoft (MSFT) join forces to address specific issues, you realize that anything could happen," says Canny.
Moving ahead
Potential problems aside, the Bluetooth SIG is moving ahead with its mission to dominate the short-range communications market. The consortium's founders are the Bluetooth industry's main forces, says Incisor's Holton, with Ericsson as the predominant player.
"Ericsson invented Bluetooth, and has the most to gain or lose," Holton explains. He notes that Bluetooth is one area in which Ericsson can recoup ground lost to Nokia and Motorola in the mobile phone market.
Holton adds that Intel has demonstrated a surprisingly high level of commitment to Bluetooth, "far beyond that of a simple interest in silicon supply."
He is less impressed with the efforts of two other co-founders. "IBM and Toshiba show up at all the events, but don't really seem to be making a huge contribution," he says.
Among the other consortium members, three of the SIG's four new "promoter" companies -- Lucent (LU), Motorola, 3Com and Microsoft -- are wielding the most influence, says Holton. "Lucent and Motorola are probably neck-to-neck in the 'significance' stakes, with 3Com yet to really show their hand."
Holton believes that Microsoft will probably have the biggest impact on the Bluetooth industry over the long haul. "Microsoft has been struggling to achieve its normal dominance in the mobile sector -- Windows CE just didn't take off -- and its final agreement to join the SIG, alongside its separate but related alliance with Ericsson, means that the mobile PC platform receives a real boost."
Yet it's Microsoft's formidable marketing muscle that may turn out to be the organization's most important contribution to the Bluetooth initiative. "The company says that it will be active in promoting the technology, as well as encouraging its partners to develop hardware and applications that support Bluetooth," says Frank LaPlaca, an analyst with investment bank W.R. Hambrecht & Co. "You certainly can't discount the effect that will have on the overall Bluetooth market."
Startups contribute more spirit
As the giants plot their moves, however, it's the startups that are providing most of the field's imagination and spirit. "I'm looking mostly to the smaller companies to show us how to use Bluetooth," says Michael Gallipo, portfolio manager from Monument Funds Group's Telecommunications Fund.
"The startups are the companies that will exploit the technology to its full potential," he predicts. "They certainly have the most to win or lose on Bluetooth."
Startups also represent the best option for investors who wish to invest in Bluetooth technology, says Gallipo. "Many startups can be viewed as Bluetooth ?pure plays' -- they're completely committed to the technology," he says. "For big players, such as Intel or Microsoft, Bluetooth is only one part of a much larger overall picture."
With any luck, Bluetooth will gradually fade from public consciousness over the next few years, says Holton. He notes that while tech initiatives usually strive for widespread recognition, the Bluetooth SIG's ultimate goal is invisibility.
"Maybe, for a while, ?Bluetooth Inside' logos will appear on equipment," he says. "But do you think about how your TV remote control works? No. And that's the way it should be with Bluetooth."
Invisible, perhaps, but still a force to be reckoned with.
Bluetooth's biggest drawing card, its ability to let portable devices communicate via radio without human interaction, could also be its Achilles' heel -- at least as far as air travelers are concerned.
The sticking point is Federal Aviation Administration (FAA) Advisory 91.21-1, which tells air carriers they must make sure that all mobile phones, pagers, and other radio-operated devices are turned off and stowed away before any aircraft leaves the terminal.
The problem with Bluetooth, however, is that its "auto-initiate" feature allows devices to launch a wireless query without its user's permission or knowledge. The capability allows Bluetooth-compatible devices to search out and automatically exchange "hi, there!" information, such as a digital business card, with nearby devices.
The Bluetooth Special Interest Group (SIG) is aware of the problem and is taking steps to make sure there's no chance its technology could send airliners careening out of control, says Simon Ellis, manager of Intel's mobile communications marketing group. "We're building in a function that will allow users to completely deactivate the unit," he says. "We want to make sure that Bluetooth products are absolutely safe and comply with all FAA and airline rules."
Many observers believe that the Bluetooth SIG, which maintains that its low-power wireless technology is perfectly safe, will look toward eventually making its standard an integral part of a much-discussed aircraft-embedded communications system. Such an arrangement would allow Bluetooth device users to zap data back and forth to each other without concern.
The aircraft's pilot could instantly unplug the system -- and shut down all on-board Bluetooth devices -- if it's determined that the system is interfering with flight operations.
The system would also allow cell phone users to make calls during flights, says Joyce Putscher, director of converging markets and technologies research for Cahners In-Stat Group, a technology research firm. "Bluetooth would provide an interface for cell phone users," she says. "The consortium could serve as a problem-solver for the cell phone industry."
But implementation of such a technology is still several years away, concedes Putscher. "This is something the airlines are just looking into -- they don't move that fast."
The Bluetooth Special Interest Group and its eponymous specification were named after King Harald Bluetooth, son of Gorm, who lived in Denmark between 910 and 940 A.D. Yet King Bluetooth's connection to 21st century mobile communications technology is slight, at best.
Good King Harald brought Christianity to Scandinavia, while also uniting -- temporarily, anyway -- Denmark and Norway. Strangely enough, Bluetooth had nothing to do with a blue tooth. His name comes from two Old Danish words meaning dark complexion -- Bluetooth likely had a tan and dark hair, which was unusual for Vikings.
Much of what is known about King Bluetooth was deciphered from two runic stones erected to his memory in Jelling, Denmark. Bluetooth consortium member Ericsson recently erected a modern runic stone to the memory of Bluetooth near its research and development facility in Lund, Sweden.
The stone bears the inscription, in runic language, translated from Swedish: "Ericsson Mobile Communications AB erected this stone to the memory of Harald Bluetooth, who gave his name to a new wireless technology for mobile communication."
Europe's doing just fine
A recent summit in Lisbon, Portugal brought together the 15 European heads of government to discuss an important issue: How can a collective Europe plan for the future by increasing technology education, employment and entrepreneurship, while closing the gap with America?
These heads of government are deeply apprehensive about America's 20% ownership of Europe's e-business market and want to begin doing the right things, now, to reverse the situation. What is worrying these government leaders and politicians is that Amazon.com (AMZN), E-Trade (EGRP) and other e-business founders have attracted European early adopters. Other concerns include the lower PC penetration of European homes vs. American homes, the narrower demographics of Net access, unemployment, an aging workforce and an educational system as yet unwired.
While it is good that the governments are anxious about these ominous signs, every single one of them will change rapidly and, to some extent, naturally.
E-businesses, such as the UK's Lastminute.com (LMIN), are springing up wildly and increasing on an order of magnitude. Venture capital money is easily available and companies such as Softbank and CMGI (CMGI) are allocating large sums to establishing a foothold in Europe.
The percentage of European homes that have a PC is lower than U.S. figures; however, Sweden has about 10% more household PCs per capita than America does.
One misleading statistic: If you enter 100 European homes, 88 will have no Internet connection. The lower Net access numbers in countries other than Sweden, Denmark, Holland, the U.K. and Germany skew this troubling figure. However, Net access is growing exponentially in Europe. -- Bill Robinson
John Edwards is a technology journalist based in Gilbert, Ariz.
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Wow. Alot to digest. 12% internet access in Europe.
Jack |
