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Technology Stocks : How high will Microsoft fly? -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Gottfried who wrote (43490)	4/26/2000 1:20:00 AM
From: Jacob Snyder	Respond to of 74651

Yup, on the wrong calls. You could repost some of mine, from January, when I thought AMAT and INTC were topping out. Actually, it's way too early for me to know that I got in at the low. I think it is a good buy-in price, and I've posted in detail my reasoning. A couple of months from now, I'll feel pleased, if yesterday's lows turn out to be THE low. Too soon to tell, which is why I'm still holding some cash. I feel perfectly qualified to judge who got it right, and who got it wrong. It was a very useful exercise, and gives me a feel for which posters have the best judgement. I don't have the time to read everyone's posts on all the stocks I'm following. I'll read all the posts of the only 3 who were correctly cautious (unfortunately, they aren't posting much, probably got driven off the thread by the Permabulls). There is way too much uncritical euphoria posted, then and now. Every once in a while, I go back and re-read some of my ancient posts, and try to learn from my mistakes, and reinforce my successful methods. So why shouldn't I do the same for other people's posts? Can I send you a bottle of my special patented SkinThickener? Apply once every morning, and before reading my posts.

To: Gottfried who wrote (43490)	4/26/2000 1:31:00 AM
From: Jacob Snyder	Respond to of 74651

Oh, one more thing: Making money in stocks, which is an exercise in predicting the future, has nothing, nothing at all, to do with luck. It's logic, facts, paying attention to the correct variables, calculating the odds, and sticking to your Plan (with a capital P). The people who were correctly cautious on MSFT last January were not "lucky". And the people who were buying the stock at 110 (and posting that it would be at 160 by now) didn't just have "bad luck". "Good luck" and "bad luck" are myths, rationalizations really.

To: Gottfried who wrote (43490)	4/26/2000 11:13:00 AM
From: Valley Girl	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 74651

Too true. There is some luck involved. No matter how carefully you think you've analyzed the situation, there is uncertainty. At the time a lot of those old posts were made, the stock might have gone either direction. In the case of my sales at that time, whoever bought the shares could have sold them at a higher price sometime during the interim period. In fact this is true for every block of shares I sold except the most recent one. It's good to have a sharp pencil, but in the end forecasting stock prices is like forecasting the weather, an inexact science that gets more inexact the farther out you look.