The Nasdaq today will do ? How many balls does Zeev carry ?
Seems that if the Nasdaq does a crash & burn
then somehow that will loosen the manipulated
holding down the price of gold so that it will
explode upwards.
Seems also that Zeev has always been one of those
persons most People Marked on SI here, so if the
following below is what I think it is, as
NAZ = Nasdaq
GS = Golden Sacks = Arch Enemy of GATA
So rather than ask Ron Reece what the NAZ
will do today and get a ten page post of
the type of good sounding stuff he has just
posted, I rather read the same volumn of more
down to earth reality from the gut based on
what makes Zeev's opinion valuable.
To: Zeev Hed
From: Bosco
Hi Zeev - this is indeed another possibility, especially if they think
the market is going to tank big. Of all the mutual funds I have though,
only the value crowd keeps a lot of cash for a prolonged duration.
Except for the index funds, a lot of funds also have alternate short
term arrangement to deal with liquidity should a stampede occur.
I must say my previous post is colored by my belief that this is very
much like 1997, during which time many fund managers simply waited out
the swoon.
best, Bosco
To: Tim Lamb
From: Zeev Hed
Tim, in a "good market" and two years hence, CDTS and or SCOn could be
$200 stocks, but right now, I think that the market psychology is
changing drastically, it seems that it is going down to Missouri (show
me). CDTS are for the time being broken, and apart of trading swings, I
would not get in them until what i expect to be a lousy May is over. I
may reenter both in the very low teens to single digit area if they get
that low in May. ANCR is still some way out from positive cash flow, but
much closer than CDTS and SCON, on the other hand, they have much
tougher competition and I am not sure that its target markets are as big
as those for CDTS and SCON and i can see many more additional unique
applications as well), so while technically, the recent move of ANCR
makes it more alluring, I think that the mid $30 are going to show some
valuation barriers.
AMD, well, I told Steve to cover his short if it breaks $45 some time
ago, and I am happy he did even lower. I do not think that $150 is in
the cards, but i could see a crossing of prices between AMD and INTC
somewhere in the $110 to $120 area this year. Once we get over the May
downturn (I should say "if" since I really do not know we'll get it, my
turnips forecasts have more or less correct, except that all time scales
are compressed, thus the late April swoon down, could have been their
May swoon down, I'll have to ask them again), I think we are going to
get a pretty good market with the DOW going to new highs and the NAZ
near elections making a marginal new high, so, if we assume that the
next swoon down will be no worse than about 3100 on the NAZ, we should
expect a very nice ride from the next lows.
Zeev
To: Zeev Hed
From: Tim Lamb
Zeev:
Thanks for your input. It looks like the NAZ needs to print 3,900 to
give a PnF buy signal. Right now while everyting (almost) is in oversold
territory its still advising caution (I missed this chart in March).
From my readings today (1st time in long time being able to spend some
time in the net) many technicians feel we set the bottom yesterday (Ike
still thinks we can retest depending on the economic #'s later this
week, if I read him right and Ground Zero thinks were going higher from
here).
We'll tomorrow is another day and the market will always surprise us.
Hey I never thought I'd see the day AMD would be above $50. So $150's
not that unreasonable <gg>. I may actually have to look at their
offering when next I purchase a PC.
Lets hope CYMI gives good guidance. IFMX's guidance spanked me last
week.
Best regards
Tim
To: Tim Lamb
From: Zeev Hed
Tim, I doubt we will get a buy signal on the Naz. In my opinion, the
"powers" have decided to get a rally going for the simple reason that
three of the biggest house on the street have a cool billion bucks at
stake in seeing a market with a "semblence" of stability. Why,? On
Thursday they are doing AT&T's AWE $13 Billion or so IPO (they get about
7% of that one) and they must have a good market to do it in. On the
other hand, soaking $13 billions out of the market is going to create a
lot of selling once the funds will have to come up with the money to pay
for it.
I would not be surprised to see a weaker market starting already some
time today, and getting worst toward the end of the week.
Nevertheless, this morning it looked as they would open VECo with a
slam, and the ask was down to $52, where I put a bid, they gave me the
stuff at $49, I just sold this one and the one I bought last week at
$63.5, all of it at $58.25, luckily, I am ahead on this one. I would
suggest that anyone holding VECO think about either hedging it or using
the rally to get out. It should not have gone under $54 or so.
RMBS is showing some nice strength, but I fear it may be a "sucker"
strength related to the coming events mentioned above.
Zeev
To: Zeev Hed
From: Zeev Hed
I have had few orders above the market and some hit here, so I'll post
what is happening on my way to "max cash" again.
BRKS went out at the old high of $88.75, I fear that my target above
$100 will have to wait for a major retrenchment back to the mid $70,
where I may take another trip. (was a good $12 plus profit, and i note
it managed to make another new high, but what the heck)
SIII went out at $14.25, it cannot generate any upward momentum,
probably a good candidate (value) for entry in the $10 area or so.
(minimal profit-1-5/8)
LRCX went out at $43 (minimal profit), with VECO and CYMI very weak, I
felt the semi equip should be left for a little while (will see if AMAT
holds above $80 on the next hit of the NAz begfore I turn positive on
the group for the summer rally).
Also out of MVIS at $35.5 ( I took a good hair cut on this one about
$2.5)
Just got confirm of $38-5/8 on XIRC.
That is so far. I am still holding out for a rally to $18 or so on VLNC,
but I will not hold too long on that one.
POOL is still in and made another new high. I am bleeding on QLTI, but
will hold it and maybe even add if it getto the high $40, this because I
think it has a huge potential ahead, and that is quite "immediate".
I may get into RMBS for a short term trade, it has convincingly taken
out the $180 to $185 area and should mobe to the $220 to the $230 area.
Just a question of timing the entry.
Zeev
To: Zeev Hed
From: anandnvi
Re In my opinion, the "powers" have decided to get a rally going for the
simple reason that three of the biggest house on the street have a cool
billion bucks at stake in seeing a market with a "semblence" of
stability. Why,? On Thursday they are doing AT&T's AWE $13 Billion or so
IPO (they get about 7% of that one) and they must have a good market to
do it in.
Zeev, with all due respect, I find the conspiracy theory hard to
believe. Goldman Sachs is one of those underwriting the AWE offering and
if they had really wanted a "stable" market, they wouldn't have
downgraded msft Monday and taken it off their recommended list, right?
Going back further, if AWE was everything they cared about, Sherlund
would not have issued revised estimates of msft's earnings, either.
Or am I missing something?
Thanks
Anand
To: anandnvi
From: Zeev Hed
Anand, GS had to come with an opinion on MSFT, too many things were
happening, on the other hand, somebody late in the afternoon Monday
started to hit the bid hard on the futures (S&P) igniting that rally. I
doubt you can call it conspiracy, they are doing what they "have to do",
but it fits the general image (background of improving earnings), yet,
th volume on the NAZ did not reach 2 B yesterday, you would think that a
real rally of 6% on the naz would bring in more than 1.6 B in trading.
Thus, I think that the market is being smartly manipulated. Such
manipulations can hold only so long, and that is why I think we will see
the decline resumed. The internal forces cause by the overhang of the
"lockouts" and liquidity soaking IPO will overcome the other games,
including earnings, IMHO.
Zeev
To: Zeev Hed
From: Tim Lamb
Zeev:
Quite a bit of uncertainity today. Still amazed (shows my ignorance) at
some of the sell offs on earnings. Shows selling into rallies.
ON the market. We'll does tomorrows #'s throw us into a funk to retest
or break the recent lows (and I'm sure we would reach the panic selling
in that one) or are they already factored into the market. Beats the
heck out of me so being cautious versus jumping the gun is the way to
go.
Better to preserve capital (although I'll still be invested in some
stocks).
On the semi's. I still don't see the cycle turning. We could stay at a
peak level for some time. I think the semi equips have the sec issue and
it can hit them in 2nd qtr reporting.
I have learned I do not trade well in a down market. So I'm being very
cautious right now.
Tim
To: Zeev Hed
From: Bosco
Hi all - speaking of GS, it doesn't seem to be doing anything right of
late [probably the MSFT downgrade is the right thing to do, albeit more
of a reaction.] First, Dear Abby threw her hat in the ring. Then, the
Nina Brink incident. Consequently, it is threatened to be frozen out of
NTT. AWE is likely a redemption piece, but GS better prays ECI and GDP
come out as expected.
best, Bosco
To: Tim Lamb
From: Zeev Hed
Tim, being cautious is healthy. Very short term, we could hold todays
lows (3675 and then rally back toward the 3800 level (the "conspiracy
theory"), but the rally will be limited to well capitalized stock always
used for rapid deployment of funds like BRCD, JDSU, RMBS, AMAT and so,
and spread a little. As for the peak in semi, I have held that the semi
equip will peak before the chips, and I expect this summer rally to
bring the semi equip to their peak.
Right now, I just jumped back into RMBS at $192.5 expecting an afternoon
rally, but I may not stay to see if $220 will be reached. I also jumped
back into JDSU at $95.5 for the same kind of tactical move, and back
into BRKS at $81.75. That is about it.
Zeev
Note added in edit, like on a "q", the market is rallying now and RMBS
is challenging $200, hopefully, JDSU will go above $100 as well.
Further edit, it does look as we are going to get a small run here, so I
jumped in scon at $22-1/16 as well. RMBS already above $200 and JDSU
struggling under $100.
To: Zeev Hed
From: Zeev Hed
Thsat was a "fake" rally if I ever saw one. I expect, however to see a
repeat before the close (providing we do not break todays low, so what
else is new?).
zeev
I do not seem to have my normal "agility" today, I missed the top of
that mini rally, and got out, a loss on SCON, and small gains in RMBS
and JDSU. Just even on the whole experiment.
To: Zeev Hed
From: rfisher
Zeev, the rallies on the 7th & 14th occurred the last 45 minutes of
trading. I just don't see it happening today but perhaps I am
underestimating the powers. RMBS hit the $200 brick wall and didn't make
it through.
To: rfisher
From: Zeev Hed
RMBS got just an iota above $200, I managed to get out at $197.5, I also
managed to kick out BRKS at $85, a little better. JDSU got out at $97.5,
but I lost almost $3/4 on SCON, I think you are right and right now we
may actually go to 3600 before another rally is attempted (3650 should
be a resistance if the "powers" want to put a good face on the market,
but I am not sure they have ammunition left).
Zeev
To: Zeev Hed
From: herringbone_100
given acceptance of the 'conspiracy theory,' i don't see why the powers
acted day before yesterday and why they didn't wait til today at 3:30 to
act. obviously this little rally has run out of steam and most everyone
seems to be cautious and now in cash on sidelines or have actually gone
short. even Groundzero, who called the rally in a very timely fashion
has closed all longs and gone short.
<<
No, the market is telling me that the numbers may actually be bad... I
closed out my long positions and went short about 45 minutes ago... I'm
now short both stocks and bonds..... I even sold out my long U.S.
Dollars today... but I am long the CRB Index.....
GZ
>>
additonally, i am reading all over the internet where such and such has
sent recommendations to clients to go to more cash as the numbers
expected tomorrow may be higher than expected...
so my question is, doesn't it seem reasonable to expect that the powers
will run up the market tomorrow and burn the shorts and those cautious
folk in cash?? 'cause it looks like the greater numbers expect it to be
a down day and often times what is expected is the opposite of what
usually happens....
your thoughts appreciated... i really enjoy your turnip readings and
have followed your trades admiringly... if you and groundzero and
RandeIs ever want to start a hedge fund, I am in <g>
To: Zeev Hed
From: Bosco
Hi Zeev & all - not sure GS has to worry about AWE anymore
cbs.marketwatch.com.
Oversubscription rate is 2:1
best, Bosco
To: herringbone_100
From: Zeev Hed
GZ, I think that they had to run the market ahead to create demand
(oversubscription) for the AWE IPO, every buck higher in this IPO, means
another $30 MM in fees, over subscription means another 15% for the
"green shoe". Actually, I am not sure about tomorrow because the funds
will need to liquidate something to pay up the $13 B or so, and I am not
sure they already have all that cash on hand.
Zeev
To: Zeev Hed
From: rfisher
Zeev, I am all cash now and plan to go short before close. I am banking
on the market tanking tomorrow. Do you agree?
To: rfisher
From: Zeev Hed
I do not agree, but I have no way of knowing one way or the other. For
instance, POOL is still pushing higher. The NAZ seems to bounce every
time it hit the 3670 or so, we may have a last 45 minutes short covering
and tomorrow, who knows...
I have actually put in orders again for RMBS at $192 and JDSU at $95. I
did get back some SNDK here at $88, but I am not sure I want it (VBG). I
also have an order to get back in BRKS around $82 or so. If we hold the
lows here for the next 10 minutes or so, we may have that elusive rally,
but nothing to write home about.
Zeev, added in edit, just got the $192 RMBS.
Add dit, and now they gave me the JDSU at $95.
To: rfisher
From: Zeev Hed
I'll have to eat some crow here, no late short covering rally, just
another proof we are in a bear market. I'd better cover sell those
losing positions before they get to really hurt. To add furry on injury,
they just gave me BRKS at $81.75 (G). Well, this one, I actually may
keep for another run up, I do not think its run is over yet.
Zeev
Well, not too much damage, $190.5 and 93.5 on RMBS and JDSU, and
actually $89 on SNDK. Let see how far this is going, 3600 the next stop?
before the close?
To: rfisher
From: Zeev Hed
Here I go again, catching falling knives, just got back into CYMI at
$37-5/16. If it breaches $36 (closing basis), I'll be out. I think it
has been punished enough and expect a reversal such as VECO is just
undergoing here.
Did you see CCRD falling apart at the end?
Zeev
To: Zeev Hed
From: rfisher
Zeev, you were within a 1/16 of the low on CYMI, congratulations. Yes
(big smile) I did see CCRD fall apart at the very end. I just don't
understand why VECO exploded at the end. It closed a 1/4 over yesterday,
even after the lousy numbers.
To: rfisher
From: Zeev Hed
Actually, my order was at 37-3/8, then, just between the bid (37.25) and
the ask (37.5), but they gave me a minimal break.
Zeev
To: Steve Lee who started this subject
From: fubsy cooter
buying before GDP. CRAZY! Strong GDP will cause selling which will
trigger itchy fingers to sell and short and the fear that is in
everyone's uncertain heart will compound the mess. We could easily hit
3200 again this week. Why gamble? wait and see. If the market stays
strong after #'s then it tells us the NAZ is oversold. Too many question
marks today. Hope no one gets hurt too bad. I, for one, am sitting on
cash and waiting for a clear signal after the #'s. regards, fubsy
To: fubsy cooter
From: Zeev Hed
fubsy, welcome to our modest abode. You will find that almost everyone
on this thread is at 50% cash or greater (except Bosco, which I believe
is still trying to cut down on margin, rush my friend, May is upon us).
But, there are sometimes opportunistic situations that suggest the risk
reward not being too great in selected long positions. Look at POOL,
BRKS, AVX, TFS and even AMD, the market is hurting and these little ones
keep marking daily new highs. The latter, if it get knocked down to the
mid $70 will be a great candidate for the rally I expect in June, but I
may not wait until then to get in.
To: Zeev Hed
From: Don Green
Zeev
How many balls to you generally juggle at one time?
Regards
Don
To: Zeev Hed
From: Bosco
Hi Zeev - thanks. Actually, I ve cut down my margin somewhat today.
Also, for once, I ve no purchase order sitting out there <SG>.
Tomorrow can be a big day. If numbers are good, I may sell a little
more. If numbers are bad, I will sell a whole lot more. Like you said,
preservation time.
best, Bosco
To: Zeev Hed
From: Scared but Hopeful
Zeev,
Ok, here's a question. I tend to buy based on IP (patents) and a good
understanding of what a company does, other than the basics of canslim
and some simple candlesticks to avoid buying at a top, I hardly ever do
T.A. What type of T.A. do suggest for someone who can only trade once or
twice a day during mkt hours? (8:30am pre-market), 12 and 3:00.
I have made a few trades in companies in my radar : sndk, rmtr, siii,
nvda, atyt, voxx but have held very little overnight now for two wks
now. Even my last initial attempt of a long term hold (TSIX) is now
gone.
I really really miss the good old "Up, Up and Away" days.
To: Don Green
From: Zeev Hed
20 to 25. I follow about 50 on screens.
Zeev
To: Scared but Hopeful
From: Zeev Hed
Scared, except of some furious rallies here and there, I think we are in
a bear market, and it is best "stepping aside" until they get extremely
negative and a rally is ready to ensue, but for the next four weeks or
so, I expect most rallies to last no more than two days or so. Pick your
targets and prices and then watch the market come to your levels of
comfort.
Zeev |
