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Strategies & Market Trends : Gorilla and King Portfolio Candidates -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Apollo who wrote (23584)	4/26/2000 8:16:00 AM
From: Mike Buckley	Respond to of 54805

Stan, Mike, in your opinion, is Rainforest a prince or a king? Neither. It's a toad. And, hey, what's the Fool PEG on this one? Very funny. :) There are no estimates for FY01 and only one estimate for this year. To run a viable PEG you need to be your own analyst and construct your own estimates. If I assume the same earnings for FY01 as FY00 (which is flawed because the company will soon be acquired) the PEG ratio is 0.20. The moral to the story is that PEG ratios taken out of context are completely useless, as are all valuation tools. This exercise was taken with the hopes that it would make Stan feel that he was sorry that he asked. :) --Mike Buckley

To: Apollo who wrote (23584)	4/26/2000 10:21:00 AM
From: tekboy	Respond to of 54805

<<Mike was a heavy investor in Rainforest Cafe>> And Lindy was a big backer of Fashion Cafe...I heard his zoot suits were on display there... tekboy/Ares@bothnowdecafenated.com PS BB, mucho mucho thanks for the update. Please keep 'em coming. Thanks to you and Merlin I am extremely comfortable with SEBL and ITWO as my (sort of) B2B plays, even though the volatility of the latter is extreme even in the rarefied company of the G&K lists. PPS Jill, re taking options profits so as not to ride short-term rollercoasters down as well as up, I totally, completely, entirely agree (notproud holder of three different evaporated multiple-baggers)...

To: Apollo who wrote (23584)	4/26/2000 11:00:00 AM
From: Judith Williams	Respond to of 54805

[A lurquer's] Portfolio Survey QCOM 19.9% (gorilla) SEBL 11.1% (front office gorilla) NTAP 6.5% (emergent gorilla?) ORCL 7.2% (annoying gorilla) PMCS 16.9% (non-gorilla money machine) JDSU 8.6% (king) starter kits: SNDK ELON 1.3% Non G&K Bio Basket: ABGX, AFFX, MLNM, MEDI, MYGN, ABSC, CELG, ENZN, ETC. 28.4% Most likely to double, assuming no Fed induced recession, Asian slumps, or war on China straits: any gorilla, but heavier probabilities with SNDK, NTAP, and QCOM, I think Personal comment on discipline: My portfolio is schizophrenic. The G&K part requires little care and feeding, just the suppression of an urge to tinker overly. I just follow the news out of interest and reappraise quarterly. Bio basket demands constant monitoring. I was interested in the discussion on ABGX a while back. Technology is definitely discontinuous and whole sector is in tornado, on the cusp of a revolution. But FM principles absolutely do not apply. Consolidation would be foolhardy, market share is fragile, profits often a word missing in the bio vocabulary. Government control is not the problem; it is the business itself. So, unlike G&K, it is high-risk, high stress, and news driven. But a vibrant exciting sector. The question remains out on whether long-term profits will appear and be sustainable. For now, the education is worth the ticket (and, imo, the risk).