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Technology Stocks : DSS: DLT finally open for trading -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Sam who wrote (255)	4/27/2000 5:18:00 AM
From: Z Analyzer	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 488

Sam, Listened to the cc. Have to admit DSS sounds tempting at this point. However, I'm not sure serious SDLT problems wouldn't ruin the whole picture. Drive revenues would drop,future tape revenues would drop, library sales would be hurt badly. And remaining SNAP is very small in comparison. Other risks: DLT 4000 profitability to decline rapidly with Benchmark replica. 7000, 8000 blown away by M2, and LTO if out sooon and matched in real world performance by $900 Exrix drive. My take: With management forecasting two bad qtrs (and risk of worse than forecast), why not wait on sidelines until SDLT proves itself. If SDLT situation not verifiable from outside within six months, probably in real trouble. This is rapidly approaching the degree of tardiness that cost EXBT market dominance. Just to put thins in perspective, management said some drives will ship this summer. Duh. Some drives have already shipped like the one one VAR told me they literally fried an egg on 6 months ago. My notes from April 27, 1999: "SDLT on track for eval shipments early second half calendar 1999 and volume later in year. Production qual units later in secon half. Expect OEM quals to extend through early part of cal 2000." Going only by the info in the conf call, you could conclude they are far less certain an committal than one full year ago. Of course, the latter is the devil's adv point of view but the risks outlined and difficult six months are not disputable. -Z