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Technology Stocks : How high will Microsoft fly? -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: E. T. who wrote (43548)	4/26/2000 9:58:00 PM
From: Just_Observing	Read Replies (4) \| Respond to of 74651

MSFT is short 163 million puts at somewhere between the high 60s and the high 70s. MSFT may be required to buy the shares and that will take away $11 billion of the cash horde (Info. from Bill Fleckenstein). Every one dollar fall in MSFT's price is a loss of $163 million on the naked options trade. Now MSFT has gone and issued another 70 million shares to employees. This will put downward pressure on the stock. This is exactly the wrong thing to do. The lower the stock goes, the larger the losses, and the greater the downward pressure on the stock since the earnings are being eaten away at $123 million per point. The equilibrium point for the stock price in such a scenario may be very low. If we have a severe market correction ( MSFT into the 50s -a low probability event), MSFT could lose billions of dollars, unless they have begun to cover some of their 163 million puts. These are trying times for MSFT and, IMHO, the new 70 million options granted to employees is a dangerous decision.

To: E. T. who wrote (43548)	4/26/2000 11:20:00 PM
From: Andy Thomas	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 74651

MSFT whupped NSCP's a** fair and square. It was so funny seeing the NSCP claiming they were going to make the browser platform independent, or sink windows, or whatever it was they were saying. It was amazing to watch worthless paper ramp up and finally crash. Finally it was amazing after that - that these Californians had the temerity to go crying to "uncle fed" for a redress. What a bunch of babies. I still say that every tech company will eventually rue the day this suit was brought against MSFT. If they couldn't win on the field of battle, could they have at least shown some class? Why didn't NSCP ever bother to write their own OS for Intel, and try to get developers to write to the APIs? They used Windows because they were too lazy to do that. I hear that in Silicon Valley the favorite meal is cheese... and WHINE. FWIW Andy

To: E. T. who wrote (43548)	4/27/2000 5:51:00 AM
From: Frederick Smart	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 74651

Break Up Microsoft..... >>My point being MSFT has the deepest pockets in the land. They have already been shown to abuse their monopoly position and if they choose to do so against a small honest upstart firm, that firm has no hope. So forget the tobacco analogy. MSFT is bad for competition, because they are not innovators, but grabbers of inovation, and when they do that against a small operator it's next to impossible to fight them. Break'em up.>> E.T.: With the stock down over 40% almost overnight, there's some REAL fear nestling deep inside this community. There's are several whammys all hitting at the same time: 1)the DOJ decision; 2) state lawsuits; 3) the decline in stock price - negatively impacting employee moral, closing the door on naked put cash, plus losses against naked put exposure; 4) slowing of core sales, etc. Like a giant python frozen in headlights on the digital highway of the world, Microsoft can't scramble. It can only continue defying the collective weight of the mirrored negative energy baking in the dark pavement across all fronts from official court judgements, future break-up decisions and all the related independent, personal stories coming from individuals who have been hurt by their practices over the years. There IS a dark "way out" but it would involve slithering into the arms of partnership with our national goverment. I hope for the sake of freedom in this country Microsoft does not take this last approach. The best thing they can do is lay their cards on the table and be truthful. But this is an impossibility given their stance to date. The entire power, control and wealth that we all have come to know and associate with Microsoft, Gates and Balmer could simply be transformatively vaporized by the power of transparency, truth and light coming from people like you and me who use, share, communication, collaborate, cooperate using the REAL Internet. Peace. GO!!