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Technology Stocks : Rambus (RMBS) - Eagle or Penguin -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Scumbria who wrote (40963)	4/26/2000 6:35:00 PM
From: Dave B	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 93625

Scumbria, All indications point to a huge increase in AMD profits this year. Intel dropping prices at 800MHz will have little impact on AMD. That will be AMD's entry level clock speed in a couple of months. All indications point to Intel doing the same thing that it's always done to AMD -- manage their profits/revenues to keep them in business but not very profitable. Just as one last datapoint, I took a look at the ratio of AMD revenues to Intel revenues over the last couple of years (see the table below). What you see is that, except for the last two quarters, it's very consistently 8%-10% with little or no growth. On a quarter by quarter comparison, some %s are up from 1997 to 1999, others are down. As for the last two quarters, Intel certainly shot themselves in the foot with the delay and confusion around the launch of the 820. Again, don't confuse AMD's growth over that period as AMD's success when in fact it's Intel's failure. Intel probably has more people focused just on getting that 13+% number back down to 10% than AMD has in their entire company. Also, I added up AMD's cumulative earnings per share over the same 3 year period. Ready? Negative $.35! In the last 13 quarters, AMD has managed to lose a total of 35 cents per share. And that number would be a lot worse without the last two quarters. Quarter AMD revenues as % of Intel revenues 1997 Q1 8.561% 1997 Q2 9.976% 1997 Q3 9.694% 1997 Q4 9.423% 1998 Q1 9.013% 1998 Q2 8.884% 1998 Q3 10.191% 1998 Q4 10.360% 1999 Q1 8.892% 1999 Q2 8.822% 1999 Q3 9.036% 1999 Q4 11.796% 2000 Q1 13.615% Dave

To: Scumbria who wrote (40963)	4/26/2000 6:40:00 PM
From: pompsander	Respond to of 93625

Scumbria, AMD has now set expectations for excellent earnings for the next three quarters. (Sanders' strikes again!). All Intel has to do to pop the AMD bubble is knock those earnings down for the first quarter of Jerry's estimate. Another nasty surprise will be forthcoming, the analysts will lose face and punish the company, investors will say "oh no, not again" and jump out of the stock. I can see this all playing out on the big stage, and, as Dave B. points out, much of the process may be placed beyond AMD control...either they match pricing or lose market share....either course of action cuts into their new profit projections.