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Technology Stocks : Net Perceptions, Inc. (NETP) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: rupert1 who wrote (2447)	4/26/2000 7:57:00 PM
From: rupert1	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 2908

And another ragingbull.com By: Intentional Reply To: 7998 by vocco Wednesday, 26 Apr 2000 at 7:30 PM EDT Post # of 8007 Interesting Observation: For last month or so I've been keeping track of 23 companies including Netp that I consider part of the Netp "sector." I've been using them to benchmark Netp in terms of valuation relative to the others. Some of these companies are only marginally in Netp's sector, I realize in retrospect, but I keep them to maintain a common baseline. NETP has just recently moved UP in my relative valuation rankings. It has always ranked between #19 and #21 in valuation up until today, and in fact was at #21 the last time I checked. But it has moved to #17 on the list, which is a big move, relatively speaking. I think this speaks to a shake-out coming in this sector. The fact that Netp is moving up while treading water indicates that others don't have the strong powerful niche in which to make a stand. For example, BLZE, a rules-based competitor was at relative parity with Netp, but now has about half the valuation. EXAP has fallen and I think is positioned behind the big guys like BVSN/VIGN/ARTG. PRME has also fallen and is likely getting pressure from ENGA as well as BVSN and VIGN. All three of BLZE, EXAP, and PRME might make sense for Netp as M&A candidates because all three are going to be reacting with that good old self-preservation instinct someday soon. I think each has an element of complementarity to existing Netp technology. But I don't really know much about EXAP and PRME. Have followed BLZE a bit since the IPO, and they have a solid neural network/rules-based view of the world. It was mentioned that Tom Kelly the CEO spoke at the Summit about how a combination of collaborative filtering and a rules-based approach is the best of all possible worlds in doing personalization. Interestingly, Snyder hinted in the conference call that Netp would implement their own rules-based technology and that it wasn't as hard to do as collaborative filtering. So I don't think Netp is looking at BLZE as anything but competition. Looking from 12,000ft it would seem to be to be a good merger: they have complementary state-of-the-art technology bases, BLZE is located in San Jose so would give Netp a Silicon Valley foothold, and I believe they're customer sets are complementary. (By the way, I just went to check BLZE out on the web and interestingly they just announced earnings. Either they're blowout, or a disaster, I can't tell which. The consensus estimate was -.41, and they came in at -.28 (good), but then they said stock-based compensation was excluded, and with that they're at -.52 (bad). So I don't know if the -.41 was an estimate with or without stock-based compensation.)