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Gold/Mining/Energy : Strictly: Drilling and oil-field services -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Think4Yourself who wrote (65338)	4/27/2000 2:58:00 AM
From: Evolution	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 95453

Thanks for your posts... I too tend to think that too much emphasis is given to the current crude stock increase when seasonal increase is due. Glad to know I am not alone. However I just woke up to the fact that the difference with last year appears small at only 12%. It looks that stocks were not that high a year ago... I also wonder whether the published stocks include all the gasoline stored in the distribution channels such as all the gas stations storage tanks (can someone tell on this thread?) If so, the cited minimum operating level (I forgot the exact figure) becomes clear, and relative comparisons should be done after discounting the minimum operating level. So for instance if the Minimum Operating Level (let's call it MOL) is 280 MMbbl and we are at 307MMbbl, then we are 27 MMbbl above MOL. Last year would have been 51.5 above MOL which is close to twice today's level. I think such comparison are more meaningful (if the MOL is something we can rely on). Also, if the near term behavior were so predictable to a durable increase in stocks, one would think the market would know it already and OSX would not be holding up so well... My guess is that the market will stay in the current trading range until either OPEC latest increase proves to be absorbed by demand increase, or until band mechanism proves is effectively tested. This being said, Slider has been right before and near term developments often surprise me, which is why I read this thread. (Note: I would not dare saying Slider has also been wrong before <g>).