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Gold/Mining/Energy : Strictly: Drilling and oil-field services -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: CommanderCricket who wrote (65378)	4/27/2000 1:47:00 PM
From: SliderOnTheBlack	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 95453

Why I would (am) selling 30% of positions for each 5-10% move up from here... 1. Nat Gas at a historically high level and the risk vs. reward is very overweighted toward a "deadzone" seasonal retrace - re: <<June natural gas futures fell after the American Gas Association reported that last week's U.S. supplies rose almost four times that of expectations. June natural gas lost 3.5 cents to $3.055 per million British thermal unit on Nymex. Late Wednesday, the AGA reported a 19 billion cubic foot increase in natural gas supplies, which now total 1,027 billion cubic feet as of last week. Analysts predicted that last week's supplies would either be unchanged or up by 5 billion cubic feet, according to a Bridge News survey. This could be the start of a bearish trend that will eventually trigger potentially heavy long liquidation, a daily report from New York-based IFR Pegasus said. A year ago, natural gas supplies rose only 5 billion cubic feet. Myra Picache Saefong is a reporter for CBS MarketWatch. >> These E&P's will re-visit the "September Syndrome" again shortly here if the above article is on target. There is no real reason for NG to rally here - in the dead season. Oil has retraced $7 here and if NG turns & pulls back - the E&P's will collapse & pullback hard on profit taking like they did into great fundamentals last September. ...re: learn from history, or be destined to repeat it. Repeat 3 times: I will sell (take profits) at a rate of 30% for each 10% move up from here (actually I am selling 30% for each 5% - because the OSX hass less than 10-15% upside here on this leg). Earnings good news is out - sell the news folks - sell rallys.... we seem to have forgotten this ? These companies (drillers/service) do not have earnings as yet supportive of ANY reason, or metric to push them to a new leg - they will fail at resistance - and only crude rising back toward high $20's, or a continuation post Q2 of earnings momenteum that we are now seeing will release support them for a new leg upward and a new trading range - perhaps OSx 110-140ish. E&P's while having great fundamentals - have the danger of a NG retrace here - per the above article. I ask you to merely loook at sector leaders here - did APA BR EOG breakout to new highs here ? 0r, did they fail & retrace of off their highs ? Sell the rally in "Waves" - 30% for ea 5-10% move on a stock by stock basis & rotate to laggards - it has worked like a charm and it will continue to work like a charm. OSX has traded in these stair step trading bands since the fall of 1998. Profit taking will hit everything here at prior resistance levels - as there is no rational reason to take these stocks to historic highs in valuations with crude looking for support, with OPECs compliance yet unknown, with supply trending up (regardless of the build season) and with earnings still 1/3rd on the avg of where they were the last time we found ourselves at OSX 120ish... Begin to start taking the money & run....and rotate to the laggards...PGO CXIPY SCSAY/SCSWF OII etc... Maybe even some tech (VBG).