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Gold/Mining/Energy : Strictly: Drilling and oil-field services -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Think4Yourself who wrote (65389)	4/27/2000 2:56:00 PM
From: Frank	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 95453

Q--What's your opinion of the hedge combined with their oil hedge? I am positive on it since they are locking in good cash and with the huge reserves have significant upside in 2H--Frank

To: Think4Yourself who wrote (65389)	4/27/2000 3:09:00 PM
From: SliderOnTheBlack	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 95453

"Q" - follow what they do - not what they say; re:XTO hedging... BINGO ! Simpson is my fav' CEO - uses leverage, puts his cojones on the line with acquisitions and the illfated stock buy etc... But ~ he hedged... and what does that say ? ...XTO see's more downside to upside at $3 for NG here - period, end of discussion. Risk - MUST be factored into any potential upside - thats a big mistake most continue to make here. As much, if not more money is made by knowing when to sell, than knowing when to buy. XTO put their $ on the no-brainer call on a risk vs. reward basis imho. Hedge that $28 Oil & $3 NG all damn day long.... The entire NG is the same as what we heard last year - but, we have one hell of a lot more drilling activity onshore for NG here in Q1-2 this year than last.... just look at PTEN, UTI's, KEG rig utilization numbers.... Gas demand will be met - no rush for utility buyers to rush to lock in that much $3+ gas here yet... PS - on my comments on profit taking - selling here. Let me explain. 1. I want to dump 1/3 here - thru resistance 2. I want to dump the next 1/3rd as we breakout into new territory - if that should happen 3. I want the other 1/3rd to either hold, or to continue to sell into a rally that sprouts legs that no one envisioned. We allways pullback nearly 1/2 of the intial breakout moves on new legs. I am not sure if the sector breaks out to a new wave here, individual stocks may. Does ANYONE think we go to OSX 140 here ? They can have 1/3 of what I have left at 120-125 They can have 1/3rd at 125-130ish They can have it all at 130-140ish... wont happen. Then I will buy most all of it back on the normal 50% pullback of the breakout and I "buy back" in "waves" just like I sold... If we hit OSX 14 - on a run from the bottom of 100 here, we should pull back to 115ish; I'd be a buyer starting at 120ish- then 100-1o5 if seen. The OSX has traded like this since the fall of 98 - it has NOT changed. Sell into this one in waves folks ~ then buy it all back cheaper. But, do watch Oil - up 70 some cents today - I'd still be selling 1/3 on the next 5-10% move here - then adjust accordingly if we see good API's and crude reacting positively . You cant make money as a trader if you get greedy and emotionaly envision rallys to levels not supported by the fundamentals quite yet... sell resistance first, then the breakout - put it in the register on this one ~

To: Think4Yourself who wrote (65389)	4/27/2000 9:26:00 PM
From: hdrjr	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 95453

JQP, The 29cents beat estimates however they have not reduced the LT debt yet. The 990mil still looms. The D/E is now in the 3.4 range, a good reduction due to their buyback, but until they start reducing debt as advertised they will continue to have the 18.6mil interest payment. I still love this company's position and plan. I am just hoping for improvement in the debt situation. I would hate to see them forecast debt repayment out to far based upon today's projected market. Nothing is forever or for sure. If you find another good one let me know, PXD doing well with stock price, but I don't have a good read on potential. I am looking to trade out of PXD at or about 11. Any thoughts? hdr