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Technology Stocks : Lucent Technologies (LU) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Mr.Fun who wrote (14573)	4/27/2000 4:03:00 PM
From: Kenneth E. Phillipps	Respond to of 21876

Nortel just announced an investment of $143 million in R&D facilities in the Ottawa area. They are obviously very optomistic about the future. Roth has been right on every major decision. I trust his judgment. I acquired Nortel with the Bay acquisition and have steadily added. I held on in 98 when the stock went from 60 to 26 and back up. ragingbull.com

To: Mr.Fun who wrote (14573)	4/27/2000 4:52:00 PM
From: telecomguy	Respond to of 21876

Mr. Fun, not to disrespect you but there is no way that optics will slow down next year. I am surprised you would be concerned about slowdown in network buildout market. I do 90% of my telecom business in Europe and I KNOW for fact that there is tremendous rush to build capacity and the number of new breed of Carriers is amazing (Viatel, Colt, Jazztel, .........probably another 20 that I can't remember) and we are just scratching the surface. The European market is still very closed as the PTT continues to play political games by denying reasonable interconnection fees and throwing all kinds of delays to prevent the aggressive new Carriers from eroding their market share. Add to this the general de-regulation going on in the world of telecom in the rest of the world (especially the orient and South America) and the fact that there is a huge insatiable demand for bandwidth driven by Internet, I am not sure how you get the impression that the network buildout will slow down? Optical spending will in fact (in absolute dollars) simply DWARF what the Carriers are spending today. If you recall Bernie Ebbers said that they are planning to spend something like $20 billion dollars (if my memory serves me correctly) on network infrastructure over the next few years in anticipation of capacity constraints. That's ONE company. I am absolutely certain that Optics will dominate not only in the backbone but also in the metro side and eventually right to the premises of office buildings. The company that takes a dominant position in Optics WILL be in an incredible position as there is compelling evidence that "light" is the only way to go to satisfy the unforecastable demand for bandwidth that will be unleashed by the Internet. This is why I am so gung-ho on NT -- because Roth sees the inflection point in the history of networking about to occur in the next 5 years. He has bet billions on Optics component technology BECAUSE he knows it is critical for NT to be the FIRST MOVER and enabler of this incredible new networking technology called Optics. If he pulls it off, the rewards will in my mind dwarf what CSCO has pulled off in the past 10 years. One of the main reason for being so heavily weighted in NT is simply based on the trust I have in Roth being able to clearly understand the path that networking technology is moving towards and his ability to foresee critical development. He has done it numerous times in the past for NT and simply based on that faith, I am very comfortable that NT will be extrememly successful in the next 5 years.

To: Mr.Fun who wrote (14573)	4/29/2000 2:00:00 PM
From: Tera Bit	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 21876

Mr. Fun, you are without question the most well informed person on SI. A couple questions if I may: 1. LU's optical component biz is having big trouble keeping up with demand. My understanding is that there is 6ish month lead time on lambda optic components. Even 1310nm lasers are scarce. My first question is, who supplies NT with their optical components and is LU arming its enemies? 2. My understanding is that Cerent is a big LU customer. I am also very confident that they are making inroads into accounts long dominated by NT and LU. Cerent's product will soon be 192 ready. Do NT or LU have anything in the works that can come close to competing with Cerent, in terms of price/performance/functionality?